Gate Daily (November 20): Basel reconsiders Crypto Assets capital rules; US Market Structure Bill expected to vote in December.

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded after a deep fall, temporarily reporting around 92,200 USD on November 20. Protests in the US and UK have forced Basel to reconsider its harsh cryptocurrency capital rules for banks. Senator Tim Scott urged a vote on the cryptocurrency market structure bill in December. A record outflow of 2.5 billion USD from Bitcoin ETF has caused BlackRock's IBIT fund market capitalization to shrink by 1.6 billion USD.

Macroeconomic Events & Crypto Circle Hotspots

1. Protests in the United States and the United Kingdom have forced Basel to reconsider its harsh capital rules for banks regarding cryptocurrencies. Eric Teden, the Governor of the Swedish Central Bank and Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), stated in an interview with the Financial Times that they may need to take a “different approach” to the current 1250% risk weight for cryptocurrency risk exposure. According to global law firm White & Case, a 1250% risk weight means that credit institutions must hold at least as much own capital as the amount of exposure to the corresponding crypto assets.

2. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott stated on Tuesday that he plans to revise the cryptocurrency market structure bill next month in order to submit it for signing by President Donald Trump before early 2026. Scott told Fox Business Channel, “We believe that next month we can have discussions in both committees and submit it to the full Senate early next year for President Trump to sign this legislation, making the United States the crypto capital of the world.” He blamed Democrats for hindering efforts to advance the bill.

3. As of November 17, the net outflow of the spot Bitcoin ETF traded in the United States reached $2.57 billion, marking the most severe monthly withdrawal since its launch in January 2024. During the same month, Bitcoin fell by 14.7% and briefly touched $89,253.78 on November 17, the lowest level since April, before rebounding to $93,426.16, an increase of 1.3% within 24 hours. The wave of fund outflows peaked on November 13, with data from Farside Investors showing that $866.7 million exited funds that day, recording the second-largest single-day decline in history. BlackRock's IBIT fund was severely impacted the following day, suffering a single-day drop of $463.1 million, setting a new historical high. IBIT alone accounted for nearly $1.6 billion of the total redemptions that month.

News Updates

1. The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has dropped to about 30%.

2. “Maji Brother” Huang Li-Cheng invests another 250,000 USDC to open a high-leverage long position in ETH.

3. Block announced a three-year growth outlook and added a $5 billion stock repurchase authorization, causing the stock price to surge 8%.

4. xAI releases Grok 4.1 Fast model and Agent Tools API

5. Luma AI has secured $900 million in Series C funding led by Humain.

6. BlackRock registers iShares Ethereum Staking ETF in Delaware.

7. NVIDIA's AI revenue and outlook both exceeded expectations, and Jensen Huang remarked that sales are booming.

8. The UAE has accumulated approximately 6,450 Bitcoins through state-supported mining activities.

Market Trend

1. Latest news on Bitcoin: $BTC fell deeply before rebounding, currently reported at around 92,200 USD, with a liquidation of 169 million USD in the past 24 hours, mainly affecting long positions;

On November 19, the S&P 500 index rebounded, ending a four-day decline. Technology stocks led the rise, with NVIDIA reporting earnings that exceeded analyst expectations after the market closed, pushing U.S. stock futures higher in after-hours trading. The S&P 500 index rose 24.84 points, an increase of 0.4%; the Nasdaq Composite index rose 131.38 points, an increase of 0.6%, closing at 22,564.23 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47.03 points, an increase of 0.1%, closing at 46,138.77 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 1.8%.

(Source: Gate)

3. In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 92,200.90 USDT, if it falls to around 89,596 USD, the cumulative liquidation amount for long positions exceeds 399 million USD; if it rises to around 92,325 USD, the cumulative liquidation amount for short positions exceeds 73 million USD. The liquidation amount for shorts is significantly lower than for longs, so it is recommended to reasonably control the leverage ratio to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflow was 3.46 billion USD, outflow was 3.89 billion USD, resulting in a net outflow of 430 million USD.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, contracts such as $ZEC, $SOL, $STRK, $TNSR, and $XAN have seen net outflows, indicating trading opportunities.

X KOL Selected Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Although the price of $BTC today is not friendly and has even fallen below recent lows, Nvidia's third-quarter financial report is indeed not bad, boosting technology stocks while slightly lifting Crypto Assets. At least for now, the AI bubble has not burst; I wonder if it will stimulate users who have recently exited technology stocks to come back in, but I have indeed seen the company starting to build positions in the weekly report data.”

“In addition, there is also the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes today. The content of the minutes is much better than the market had imagined. Although Powell said he is not prepared to cut interest rates again in December, there is not a consensus within the Fed. Nearly half of the officials supported a rate cut in December during September, although these people are not necessarily all voting members; the key still lies in the choices of the voting members. The primary catalyst for this decline is also due to the Fed's lack of preparation for a rate cut in December, combined with concerns about the U.S. government shutdown and the AI bubble. Monetary policy remains the biggest concern for the market, while employment data is the most closely watched data by the Fed. It can be said that whether or not there will be a rate cut in December mainly depends on the employment data.”

“Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the turnover rate has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level, indicating that the panic sentiment among holders has not completely disappeared. However, with the decrease in $BTC price, the number of investors willing to sell is getting smaller and smaller. It can be clearly seen that the sell-off of positions priced above 100,000 dollars has started to decrease, which indicates that the panic investors at high levels have already exited. I estimate that as the price decreases, many small partners have started to question the support levels of on-chain data again. It's okay, this has happened too many times in the past few years. Currently, the two support levels show no signs of collapsing, and at least the loss-making investors are still maintaining an optimistic mindset.”

Today's Outlook

1. Germany's October Producer Price Index (MoM), previous value was -0.1%

2. The UK November CBI industrial order expectations balance, previous value was -38.

3. The unemployment rate in the United States for September was 4.3%.

4. U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment change (thousands), previous value was 22

5. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week, seasonally adjusted (in thousands) (as of 1115)

6, U.S. October NAR Seasonally Adjusted Existing Home Sales (Annualized Monthly Rate), Previous Value 1.5%