Institutions foresee the US September non-farm payroll report: the weak employment market trend may continue, but it is too early to talk about a collapse.

According to BlockBeats news, on November 20, the first non-farm payroll report after the suspension will be released tonight, and the views of various institutions are as follows:

Rockefeller: It is expected that non-farm payrolls in September will increase by 50,000, indicating that the job market remains stable, while previously released labor data has shown a明显疲软态势.

Indeed Hiring Lab: Compared to previous reports, it is not expected that the September non-farm payroll report will show significant changes, and the current weakness in the labor market will continue.

Pan Sen Macro: Any data that currently seems unsatisfactory may continue to ferment due to a six-week data vacuum period, and the negative impact of non-farm data may be amplified;

Reuters survey: It is expected that non-farm payroll employment will increase by 50,000 in September. Economists believe that the August data was suppressed by seasonal anomalies and may be revised upward based on historical trends.

Loyola Marymount University: The labor market is clearly slowing down, and the general expectation is that this trend will continue. The labor market will hover at the bottom for a period of time but will not fall into recession.

Nationwide: It is expected that the non-farm payroll will increase by 40,000 to 50,000 in September, which will further confirm that the weakness in the job market during the summer has continued into the fall, with companies maintaining a stance of not hiring and not laying off.

Farm Credit: It is expected that non-farm payrolls will increase by 55,000 in September, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%; the labor market appears to be cooling, but has not collapsed, still exhibiting a “low hiring, low layoffs” situation;

Standard Chartered Bank: Expects that non-farm payroll data from September to November will be “very weak”, seasonal hiring may be very weak, and layoffs will be exceptionally high, which should be enough to persuade the Fed's moderates to lean towards the rate cut camp.

Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the non-farm payrolls in September will increase by 80,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%; risks may be hidden in the unpublished October data, with an expected non-farm payrolls decrease of -50,000 in October.

Lianxin Bank: It is expected that non-farm payroll employment will increase by about 40,000 in September, and the market reaction may be smaller than usual, as more information about the employment market can now be obtained from data released by private institutions.

Consulting firm RSM: Data for September, along with the revised figures for July and August, will show that the employment outlook is slightly better than generally expected, but far from impressive, as the labor market continues to struggle, and the overall U.S. economy is in a similar situation.

(Note: Market consensus expects that the U.S. non-farm payrolls for September will increase by 50,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%.)(Jin Shi)