The U.S. expects the global oil market to face a small supply gap this year

The United States continues to expect a small shortage of global oil supply in 2024, which has exacerbated market tightening expectations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its global demand estimate by 480,000 b/d to 102.91 million b/d, bringing it in line with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast of 103.2 million b/d. The forecast comes as the world’s largest oil traders are increasingly optimistic about the market outlook for the second half of the year. Brent crude, the international benchmark, is trading near $90 a barrel, with geopolitical tensions fueling bullish sentiment, rapid higher-than-expected demand and OPEC+ production cuts limiting global inventories.