Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen analyzed Bitcoin's price movements in his latest market analysis, stating that Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern continues to function despite recent criticism. Cowen noted that the market cycle in 2026 represents a less volatile replica of the 2018 bear market. The analyst's charts demonstrate that price movements since the beginning of the year almost perfectly mirror those of 2018, with key technical events occurring on the same timeline in both years.
Cowen Identifies Parallel Price Patterns Between 2018 and 2026
Cowen's charts show that price movements since the beginning of the year almost perfectly mirror those of 2018. According to the analyst, the local low in February, the rising lows in March and April, the rejection from the 200-day moving average in May, and the drop below the previous low in June all occurred on the same timeline in both years.
Bitcoin Price Levels Show Tenfold Proportional Similarity
The proportional similarity between the prices is quite remarkable. The lowest level seen in late June 2018 was around $5,700. The low seen at the end of June/beginning of July 2026 was exactly ten times that, at the level of $57,000.
Analyst Explains Market Psychology Behind Current Sentiment
Cowen explained why many investors are pessimistic about the current downturn, summarizing it with peak psychology. When Bitcoin tested $20,000 in 2018, there was great enthusiasm in the market. However, despite the price peaking around $126,000 in the 2016 cycle, the expected massive altcoin rally didn't materialize, so this enthusiasm didn't resonate with investors. Cowen stated, "Markets peaked with complacency, not enthusiasm. That's why the current downturns make people feel so much worse."
Cowen Outlines July Through September Market Expectations
Sharing his expectations for the coming months, the analyst stated that July typically opens a "short-term window of strengthening" for cryptocurrencies, but that weakness could be seen again in August and September.
October Identified as Potential Cycle Bottom Timing
When asked where the market would reach its final bottom, Cowen responded by giving a specific date. In the 2018 cycle, the final bottom was seen in December, but because the peak of the current cycle occurred last October, Cowen argued that there is a very strong possibility that the new cycle bottom will be seen this October.
FAQ
What pattern did Benjamin Cowen identify in Bitcoin's 2026 price movements?
Benjamin Cowen identified that Bitcoin's price movements in 2026 almost perfectly mirror those of 2018, with key technical events such as the February local low, March and April rising lows, May rejection from the 200-day moving average, and June drop below the previous low all occurring on the same timeline in both years.
What price levels did Cowen compare between 2018 and 2026?
Cowen noted that the lowest level seen in late June 2018 was around $5,700, while the low seen at the end of June/beginning of July 2026 was exactly ten times that amount at $57,000, demonstrating a proportional tenfold similarity between the two cycles.
When does Cowen expect the current cycle bottom to occur?
Cowen stated that because the peak of the current cycle occurred last October, there is a very strong possibility that the new cycle bottom will be seen this October, noting that in the 2018 cycle the final bottom was seen in December.
