Bitcoin was temporarily reported at $60,754 on June 25, dipping below the $60,000 mark during the session to a low of $60,728. Prime Terminal data shows: market expectations for a rate hike in December have risen to 82%. Long-term investors cite the 'Bitcoin four-year cycle' pattern, believing that the current decline has not reached the levels of the 2022 or 2018 bear markets.
Bitcoin Historical Cycle Data: Comparison of 2023-2025 Gains and Past Two Bear Market Declines
Confirmed historical data for the past three cycles are as follows:
2015-2018 Cycle: Bitcoin surged from 2015 to 2017, nearing $20,000 for the first time by end of 2017, then plummeted 73% in 2018.
2019-2022 Cycle: Bitcoin rallied from 2019 to 2021, hitting an all-time high of approximately $69,000 in November 2021, then crashed 64% in 2022.
2022-2026 Cycle (Current): Rose 156% in 2023, another 121% in 2024, hit a new all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, and has since fallen over 50% from the peak.
The current decline is approximately 48-50%, which has yet to reach the adjustment levels of the previous two bear markets (64% and 73%).
Halving Mechanism: Timeline of the Most Recent Halving in 2024 and the Next Halving in April 2028
Some analysts point out that one of the core drivers of Bitcoin's 'four-year cycle' is the halving mechanism. Under Bitcoin's network design, the reward of new bitcoins for miners is halved approximately every four years, reducing the rate of new supply. Past bull runs have almost always occurred within 12 to 18 months after a halving.
In terms of timing: the most recent halving occurred in April 2024; the next halving is expected around April 2028. Some market participants believe that 2027 could be an important time window for the market to re-enter an upward trajectory, and the 2028 halving event may further strengthen expectations.
Fed Rate Hike Expectations: Prime Terminal Data Shows 40% Probability for Next Meeting, 82% for December
According to the latest Prime Terminal data: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the next meeting is 60%, while the probability of a rate hike is 40%; the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 82%, with traders pricing in about 20 basis points of tightening. Among the Fed's 19 policymakers, 8 predict a rate hike before the end of 2026, while the majority lean toward keeping rates unchanged.
In terms of institutional assessments, multiple institutions including Deutsche Bank note that Bitcoin is increasingly resembling a high-risk institutional asset rather than the retail-driven speculative vehicle of its early days, with its correlation to the global liquidity environment steadily rising. Institutional fund outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and a strengthening U.S. dollar are also among the main factors suppressing risk appetite recently.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Bitcoin necessarily follow the 'four-year cycle' pattern?
According to the article, the 'four-year cycle' is a historical pattern cited by some long-term investors and analysts, not a deterministic law. The article also points out that 'history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes' — this framework is for reference only and is not a guarantee of future movements.
Is the current 50% decline the bottom of this bear market?
Based on historical comparisons in the article, the current decline of approximately 48-50% has not reached the 64% in the 2022 bear market or the 73% in the 2018 bear market; if this cycle's decline approaches historical levels, there is theoretically still a possibility of falling to $50,000 or lower. The article does not provide a definitive bottom judgment.
What is the actual mechanism of the Fed's rate hike impact on Bitcoin?
According to assessments by institutions such as Deutsche Bank, Bitcoin is now increasingly like a high-risk institutional asset, with its correlation to the global liquidity environment steadily rising. Rate hikes typically strengthen the U.S. dollar and suppress liquidity, which directly affects institutional investors' willingness to allocate to high-risk assets, so Bitcoin faces stronger downward pressure when rate hike expectations rise.
