U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $630.4 million in net outflows on May 13, marking the largest daily exit in over three months, as inflation data triggered broad institutional risk aversion. The outflows reversed a five-week inflow streak that had accumulated approximately $3.8 billion in cumulative net inflows through the week ending May 6, according to Farside Investors data.
ETF Outflow Breakdown
BlackRock's IBIT led redemptions with $284.7 million in outflows, followed by ARK Invest's ARKB ($177.1 million), Fidelity's FBTC ($133.2 million), and Bitwise's BITB ($35.4 million), together accounting for the entirety of the day's losses. The May 13 outflows represented the worst single-day performance since January 29, when Bitcoin ETFs lost $817.8 million.
The Bitcoin ETF sell-off had been building over multiple days, with funds shedding $268.5 million on May 7 and a further $233.2 million on May 12.
Inflation Data Triggers Market Shift
April's Consumer Price Index came in at 3.8%, above expectations and the highest reading since September 2023. A day later, the Producer Price Index printed at 6%, the highest since February 2023. According to Illia Otychenko, Lead Analyst at CEX.IO, these releases strengthened concerns that the Federal Reserve may consider rate hikes this year.
"A large part of the outflows was driven by this week's U.S. inflation data, which significantly shifted market expectations around Federal Reserve policy," Otychenko told Decrypt. "Together, these releases strengthened concerns that the Federal Reserve may consider rate hikes this year."
Otychenko noted that the inflation data triggered broad risk aversion, which "by extension hit Bitcoin and caused elevated ETF outflows."
Analyst Perspectives
Peter Chung, head of research at Singapore-based algorithmic trading firm Presto Labs, cautioned against reading too deeply into the single-day figure. "Institutions are a diverse bunch. The markets can rally on the back of bullish sentiment of a certain cohort of investors, but the resulting higher price may serve as a strong incentive for another cohort of investors to lock in profits," he told Decrypt, characterizing the activity as "healthy consolidation."
Otychenko flagged rising bearish derivatives positioning as a warning sign. "There has been increased deleveraging of long positions and a rising put/call options ratio, both suggesting bearish sentiment has been increasingly building," he said.
Market Positioning and Outlook
Otychenko noted that much will depend on oil prices and developments around the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any prolonged disruption could push energy costs higher and "add another inflationary wave," increasing pressure on crypto markets. The outcome of the Clarity Act hearing could also "introduce additional volatility" across the sector, he noted.
On prediction market Myriad, users place just a 24% chance on the Strait of Hormuz blockade being lifted before June, though the likelihood of crude oil prices surging to $120 has dropped from 76% on Wednesday to 65% as of the article date. Myriad users are pricing a greater than 84% chance of Bitcoin's next move being a push to $84,000 rather than a collapse to $55,000, though near-term sentiment leans cautious, with users only assigning 41% chance of BTC closing above $80,000 by Friday 4 pm UTC.
Bitcoin Price Movement
Bitcoin is trading at $79,540, down 1.6% in the last 24 hours after briefly touching the $82,000 range last weekend, according to CoinGecko data.
