Bitcoin slightly rebounded to $59,768 on July 2, with total long liquidations exceeding $200 million in 24 hours. Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh stated at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal the same day that the Fed does not provide forward guidance and future policy will be determined based on economic data. He also said that recent inflation expectations and upside risks to inflation have declined. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a September rate hike fell from 80% on Tuesday to 65%.
CoinGlass: Over $200 million in long liquidations in 24 hours, monthly candle starts with slight gain
(Source: CoinGlass)
According to CoinGlass data, total long liquidations for Bitcoin exceeded $200 million in 24 hours as of press time. The July monthly candle started with a slight gain at the beginning of the month, after BTCUSD had fallen from its all-time high to multi-year lows. The US Dollar Index (DXY) pulled back from 101.6 after opening on July 2, easing some selling pressure on BTC's short-term trend.
Three traders' public analysis of BTC technical trends
Trader Lennaert Snyder said on X that BTC showed upward momentum during the New York trading session, with an accompanying chart indicating signs of "weakness" before $60,700, followed by a low-timeframe reversal. Daan Crypto Trades noted on X that $58,000 to $61,000 is the current key consolidation range for BTC, and said the next touch of either end of the range will serve as the basis for determining a directional breakout.
Rekt Capital cited historical monthly data for Bitcoin, noting a pattern of June declines, July recoveries, and August declines again, and cautioned that there is a historical pattern of breaking below the monthly opening price at the beginning of the month.
Fed Chair Walsh: No forward guidance, September rate hike probability drops from 80% to 65%
Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh made a formal statement on July 2, 2026 at the European Central Bank Annual Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, stating that the Fed does not provide forward guidance and will make policy decisions based on the latest economic data. Walsh also stated that inflation expectations and upside risks to inflation have declined in recent weeks.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders' probability forecast for a September rate hike fell from 80% on Tuesday to 65%.
ADP employment at 98,000 below expectations, ISM Manufacturing PMI falls to 53.3
The US June ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls added 98,000, below the consensus forecast of 118,000. In the same period, the June ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3, below the market expectation of 54.0 and the previous month's 54.0. Both data missed expectations, intensifying market focus on a slowing US economy.
US June non-farm payrolls report: consensus forecast of 110,000 new jobs
The US market was closed on Friday, July 4 for Independence Day, so the June non-farm payrolls report was released early on Thursday, July 3. The market consensus forecasts 110,000 new non-farm jobs in June; unemployment rate forecast remains at 4.3%. All specific data are subject to the official announcement by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
FAQ
What price did Bitcoin rebound to on July 2, 2026?
According to CoinGlass and market data, Bitcoin slightly rebounded to $59,768 on July 2, 2026.
What is the current probability of a Fed rate hike in September?
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, as of July 2, 2026, traders' probability forecast for a September rate hike is approximately 65%, down 15 percentage points from 80% on Tuesday.
What is the current key technical range for Bitcoin?
Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out on X that $58,000 to $61,000 is the current key consolidation range for BTC; the next touch of either end of the range serves as the technical basis for determining the breakout direction.
