Bitcoin Rises 1.59% as 26.3% Holder Cost Basis Gap Signals Structural Weakness

According to CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain, Bitcoin rose 1.59% over the previous week to trade near $64,792, with a notable 26.3% cost basis gap between recent and longer-term holders signaling underlying market weakness. The analyst noted that recent buyers continue to hold Bitcoin at significantly lower average prices than those who accumulated six to 12 months ago—a pattern historically associated with distribution phases.

CryptoOnchain's seven-signal momentum model currently shows four indicators pointing bullish, but adding the realized price signal shifts the broader model into bearish territory, reducing recommended market exposure from 100% to 30%. The structural signal suggests that even as Bitcoin recovers short-term, the cost basis relationship across holder groups remains unfavorable for confirming a stronger reversal.