Bitwise Reports CLARITY Act's Probability of Passage Falls to 40% from 75%, Cites Market Caution in Q3

According to Bitwise's third-quarter outlook report, forecast markets have reduced the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year to 40%, down significantly from 75% in mid-May. The asset management company attributed this decline to increased market caution regarding the regulatory process in recent weeks.

Bitwise described the CLARITY Act—which could clarify how the cryptocurrency market will be regulated and shape the sector's structural framework—as a potential critical turning point for the market. The company argues that the law's passage could signal the bottom of the current bear market and strengthen medium-term recovery expectations, though it warned that rejection or delays could trigger short-term volatility.