BTC rises 0.40% in 15 min: Iran-U.S. conflict escalates and boosts demand for safe-haven assets, but it’s still down 1.96% in 24h

On July 16, 2026, 14:00–14:15 (UTC), BTC surged rapidly within 15 minutes, reaching a high of 64,721.1 USDT and a low of 64,330.4 USDT. The range was 0.61%, and it closed at +0.40%. Despite the short-term rebound, over the past 24 hours BTC still recorded an approximately -1.96% decline. The current price is around $64,023, suggesting that the safe-haven narrative offers limited support to BTC.

The core driver behind this spike is the sharp escalation of the US-Iran military conflict. Within 7 hours, the U.S. military carried out large-scale airstrikes on Iran, hitting dozens of targets. It was the first time the strike range was expanded to areas around Tehran, and it also reinstated a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has threatened to disrupt regional energy exports, leaving the Strait of Hormuz shipping environment under heightened tension. This pushed oil prices to about $71.51 per barrel, intensifying inflation expectations; however, gold also fell, down 0.6% to $4,034. This indicates that in the short term, the geopolitical conflict is suppressing all assets rather than simply benefiting traditional safe-haven assets. BTC is showing more of a “risk asset selloff” pattern than a “digital gold” logic.

Second, uncertainty around the Fed’s policy provides some downside support. The Fed’s Beige Book shows the economy improving but inflation still facing challenges, and there are internal disagreements within the Fed on the rate-hike path. The dollar weakened to a near one-month low, providing BTC with some FX-hedging support. In addition, order book checks detected a large buy wall at 64,022.6. A buy order totaling 0.8051 BTC accounts for 90% of the total buy orders in the top 5 bids, suggesting that institutions may be propping up or accumulating near this key support level. Technically, the moving-average system on the 4-hour timeframe issued bullish signals, and ADX is approaching 30, suggesting some upward momentum in the short to mid term.

Volatility risk remains in the current market. Continue to closely monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict escalates further and leads to a complete blockade of the strait, it could intensify risk asset selloffs. Key support is at $64,022 (the location of the large buy wall in the order book) to $63,855. Resistance is at $64,275 to $65,600. If the large order at $64,022 is withdrawn or price breaks below $63,855, it may trigger further downside. Going forward, continue to monitor crude oil prices, the DXY trend, and the persistence of the buy wall on the order book.