BTC up 0.76% in 15 minutes: short covering and marginal improvement in ETF inflows converge

2026-07-06 21:00-21:15 UTC, Bitcoin rapidly rose +0.76% within 15 minutes, price range 63807.1-64689.8 USDT, amplitude 1.38%. This period corresponds to the active U.S. trading session with relatively ample liquidity, concentrated short-term buying pushing price quickly higher, market sentiment leaning bullish.

The main driver of this anomaly is the short covering after deleveraging in the derivatives market. In the first half of 2026, Bitcoin futures open interest experienced a significant decline, with a 7-day change rate of approximately -3%, and the market is in a low open interest environment. At the same time, the funding rate structure is bearish, providing conditions for short covering; even a small amount of buying can push prices up significantly.

Additionally, the marginal improvement in spot ETF inflows provides price support. In early July 2026, spot ETFs achieved a phased net inflow of $816 million, led by a top institution, and the marginal slowdown in capital outflow pressure improved market supply-demand balance. Continued institutional buying also forms bottom support, with giants like Strategy Inc. maintaining their purchasing pace.

Meanwhile, the contraction of on-chain circulating supply amplifies price elasticity. Exchange Bitcoin reserves have steadily declined from the 2022 peak of 3.3 million BTC to about 3 million BTC, reducing the tradable circulating supply and making prices more sensitive to new capital. On the technical side, the short-term moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20 form a bullish arrangement, and the CCI indicator issues a buy signal, confirming short-term upward momentum.

Risk warning: Watch out for the exchange whale ratio rising to a ten-month high; the increase in the proportion of large transfers may indicate selling pressure under low liquidity. If the price fails to effectively break through key resistance levels, the funding rate turning negative may convert into long liquidation pressure, causing a stampede. Going forward, close observation of the sustainability of ETF fund flows, recovery of contract open interest, and changes in macro policies is needed; short-term volatility risk remains.