Former UFC champion Conor McGregor placed a $100,000 wager on July 19 predicting Argentina would defeat Spain 3-2 in regulation time during the World Cup final. The bet, placed through 1xBet at approximately 36.00 odds for a potential $3.6 million payout, was inspired by a July 11, 2021 social media post that predicted the exact scoreline. McGregor's high-stakes exact-score wager represents part of a broader trend of celebrity involvement in sports betting markets, with Canadian rapper Drake simultaneously placing $1.5 million on Argentina through a separate platform.
McGregor's Bet Requires Exact 3-2 Score in Regulation Time
McGregor shared the wager through 1xBet ahead of the 3 p.m. EDT kickoff on Sunday, July 19. The bet must hit within regulation time, meaning Argentina must lead 3-2 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Any outcome in extra time or a penalty shootout does not count toward the wager.
McGregor explained that the wager was inspired by "some guy on the internet," referring to a July 11, 2021 post that declared: "Argentina just beat Spain at the 2026 World Cup final, 3-2." The dormant prediction resurfaced after both countries reached the final. The original 2021 post has 300,000 likes at the time of writing.
At odds near 36.00, McGregor's $100,000 stake could return approximately $3.6 million if the precise result materializes. Any other score, including an Argentina victory by a different margin, would result in a loss. The narrow conditions separate McGregor's wager from a conventional bet on Argentina to lift the trophy.
Kalshi and Polymarket Data Show Spain as Market Favorite
Kalshi traders assigned Spain a 58.2% probability of winning the World Cup, compared with 42% for Argentina, across a market reporting more than $1.4 billion in trading volume. Kalshi's regulation-time contracts placed Spain's chance of winning within 90 minutes at 43%, a draw at 32%, and Argentina's chance at 27%. The platform also priced the likelihood of more than 2.5 match goals at 42%.
Polymarket reflected similar expectations shortly before kickoff. Spain traded near a 59% chance of advancing as champion, while Argentina stood near 41%. Its regulation-time moneyline priced Spain at roughly 42.75%, a draw at 31.75%, and Argentina at 26.75%.
Those figures make McGregor's prediction a two-part challenge. Argentina must overcome the market favorite, and the match must produce exactly five goals in the required 3-2 sequence.
Drake Places $1.5 Million on Argentina Through Stake Platform
Canadian rapper Drake staked $1.5 million through Stake on Argentina winning the final in regulation or extra time, with a potential payout exceeding $5 million. Drake's bet carries broader winning conditions because it does not require a particular score.
Drake's public wagering history has generated the recurring "Drake curse" meme, which links his selections to subsequent defeats. Together, the two wagers place $1.6 million of publicly disclosed celebrity money behind Argentina. Their social media posts have expanded attention beyond traditional sports betting audiences.
McGregor Won Previous Bets on Spain Euro 2024 and Argentina Copa América
McGregor wagered €83,500 on Spain to win Euro 2024 at roughly 11-to-1 odds, collecting a return exceeding €1 million after Spain captured the title. He also placed a substantial wager on Argentina to win the 2024 Copa América. Argentina defeated Colombia 1-0 in the final, giving McGregor another widely publicized soccer betting victory.
McGregor also backed Cristiano Ronaldo to win the Euro 2024 Golden Boot, a wager that failed when Ronaldo did not finish as the tournament's leading scorer. Reports differed significantly on the size of that stake.
Meanwhile, the X account that made the World Cup prediction in 2021 posted today and said: "...today is the day." The latest post has gathered around 75,000 likes at the time of writing.
FAQ
What exact conditions must McGregor's bet meet to win?
McGregor's $100,000 wager requires Argentina to lead Spain 3-2 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time in regulation. Any score in extra time or penalty shootouts does not count. Any other regulation-time result, including a different Argentina victory margin, results in a loss.
What probability did prediction markets assign to Spain before the July 19 final?
Kalshi traders assigned Spain a 58.2% probability of winning the World Cup compared with 42% for Argentina across a market exceeding $1.4 billion in volume. Polymarket priced Spain near 59% and Argentina near 41% shortly before kickoff.
