Polymarket and Kalshi processed combined World Cup prediction market volumes exceeding $4.8 billion as of July 5, 2026, with France holding a 35.4% probability of winning the tournament on Polymarket's $3.9 billion market and 35.5% on Kalshi's $961.96 million market. The trading activity reflects concentrated betting on the World Cup tournament across major prediction platforms. Prediction markets collectively processed $50.69 billion in monthly notional volume in June 2026, with Kalshi holding 65.1% market share at $33.0 billion and Polymarket accounting for 21.1% at $10.70 billion.
Polymarket Records $3.9 Billion in World Cup Trading Volume
Polymarket's World Cup Winner market generated $3.9 billion in total trading volume. France sits at the top with a 35.4% implied probability of winning the tournament, backed by more than $94.5 million in individual volume on that outcome alone.
Argentina, the defending champion, holds second place at 16.8%, with $99.8 million wagered on its chances, the highest single-volume figure in the market. Spain follows at 12.4% with $85.0 million in volume. England and Brazil sit at 7.1% and 7.0% respectively. Portugal rounds out the leading contenders at 6.0%.
Kylian Mbappe leads the Golden Boot market at 51%, ahead of Lionel Messi at 37%. Mbappe also tops the Golden Ball market for best overall player at 38%, with Messi at 26%. Traders give France a 55% chance of reaching the final, compared to 38% for Argentina.
Europe carries a 66% chance of winning the tournament outright, while South America sits at 28%. Argentina is favored at 86% to reach the quarterfinals, ahead of Brazil at 70%. In the semifinal market, France leads at 79% to Argentina's 63%. France is favored at 70% to produce the tournament's top scoring nation, with Argentina at 20%.
Kalshi Shows $961.96 Million Volume With Similar France Odds
Kalshi's World Cup Winner market reached $961,962,750 in trading volume. France leads at 35.5 cents on the dollar for a "Yes" contract, matching its Polymarket probability closely. Argentina follows at 17.7%, while Spain sits at 12.6%.
The near identical odds across both platforms point to broad agreement among traders about the tournament's likely outcome, even as the two markets differ sharply in size and structure.
Prediction Platforms Process $50.69 Billion in June 2026
Platforms collectively processed about $50.69 billion in monthly notional volume in June 2026. Kalshi led all platforms with roughly $33.0 billion, or 65.1% of the total. Polymarket followed with $10.70 billion, accounting for 21.1%, while its separate Polymarket US entity added $3.88 billion, or 7.7%. Combined, those three platforms represented nearly 94% of all recorded volume.
The remaining activity was split among smaller venues, including Crypto.com at $943.7 million, Opinion at $756.2 million, Limitless at $570.2 million, Predict.fun at $558.8 million, Hyperliquid at $176.6 million, and a combined "Other" category totaling $98.4 million. The distribution shows a market concentrated among a small number of dominant platforms.
FAQ
What is France's probability of winning the World Cup on prediction markets?
France holds a 35.4% probability on Polymarket's $3.9 billion World Cup market and 35.5% on Kalshi's $961.96 million market as of July 5, 2026.
How much volume did prediction platforms process in June 2026?
Prediction platforms collectively processed $50.69 billion in monthly notional volume in June 2026, with Kalshi holding 65.1% market share at $33.0 billion and Polymarket accounting for 21.1% at $10.70 billion.
Which country has the second-highest World Cup winning probability?
Argentina, the defending champion, holds second place at 16.8% on Polymarket with $99.8 million wagered, and 17.7% on Kalshi.
