Future Fund Managing Director Gary Black commented on SpaceX's stock decline after shares of the newly public company closed Friday's session 5.43% down at $123.60, approximately 9% below its $135 initial public offering price and down around 45% from its all-time intraday high of $225.64. Black stated the decline validated his concerns over the company's valuation and IPO structure, adding that SPCX stock still trades at FY'2026 EV/Revs of 45x. The stock has fallen over 20% since its public market debut in June.
Gary Black Cites Valuation Metrics And IPO Scrutiny
In a post on X, Black said "Don't say I didn't warn you," stating that SPCX stock's decline validated his long-standing concerns over its valuation and IPO structure. He added that the stock still trades at "FY'2026 EV/Revs of 45x."
Black invoked legendary investor Peter Lynch's skepticism toward IPOs, saying Lynch believed IPO stood for "it's probably overpriced." He stated that SpaceX's "totally unproven plans to build data centres in space" were thoroughly examined before the listing, while its prospectus outlined what he described as a "ridiculous total addressable market" of $28.5 trillion.
Black also noted that the company's losses "were disclosed and discussed," adding that there "may not have been an IPO in world history as closely scrutinised as this one." According to Black, investors who still chose to buy despite the risks "deserved what they got."
Black Criticizes $85 Billion IPO Structure And Analyst Ratings
Black said the decline cannot be viewed in isolation because it "ignores the cynical way" SpaceX, its investment bankers, and advisers structured the IPO "to engineer short-term gain" and create "a $US500 billion fee pool."
Black said the $85 billion IPO — "3x the size of the next largest IPO in history" — created a "highly imbalanced supply/demand situation," with a free float of less than $100 billion supporting more than $2 trillion in paper market value. Despite the stock's decline, he maintained that SpaceX "still looks ridiculously overvalued at 45x 2026 EV/Revs," while noting that most Wall Street analysts covering the stock have 'Buy' ratings and "only one — Morningstar... has a sell rating." Black ended his post, saying, "That says it all."
Stocktwits Retail Sentiment Remains Bearish
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits for SPCX remained 'bearish,' unchanged in the past 24 hours, while message volume was 'low.' SPCX stock has fallen over 20% since making its public market debut in June.
FAQ
What did Gary Black say about SpaceX stock valuation?
Gary Black stated that SPCX stock still trades at FY'2026 EV/Revs of 45x and described it as "ridiculously overvalued" despite its decline from all-time highs. He noted the stock closed Friday at $123.60, down 45% from its intraday peak of $225.64.
How did Gary Black describe SpaceX's IPO structure?
Black said the $85 billion IPO — three times the size of the next largest IPO in history — created a "highly imbalanced supply/demand situation" with a free float of less than $100 billion supporting more than $2 trillion in paper market value. He stated the structure was designed "to engineer short-term gain" and create "a $US500 billion fee pool."
What is the current analyst coverage on SPCX stock?
Black noted that most Wall Street analysts covering SPCX have 'Buy' ratings, with only one firm — Morningstar — issuing a 'sell' rating on the stock.
