Jefferies: 1.6T Optical Module Shortage to Persist at 30% Through 2027

According to Jefferies optical specialists on July 15, 1.6T optical modules are forecast to face a 30% supply shortage in 2026-2027, while 800G modules face a 10% supply gap. In 2026, 1.6T shipments are projected at 1.8 billion units against demand of 2.6 billion units, while 800G shipments are estimated at 40-42 million units against demand exceeding 45 million units.

Upstream DSP and 200G EML chips remain dominated by U.S. and Japanese manufacturers including Broadcom, Marvell, and Lumentum. Desay Battery's 200G EML is expected to begin mass production in the second half of 2026, marking a potential breakthrough for domestic semiconductor substitution in China.