KOSPI 200 companies are seeing semiconductor profit concentration surge to a projected 77% of total operating profit by the fourth quarter, up from 56% in the first quarter, according to FnGuide and securities industry data released on the 15th. Semiconductor operating profit is expected to expand from 94.8 trillion won in Q1 to 220.5 trillion won in Q4, while non-semiconductor profit declines from 74.5 trillion won to 64.3 trillion won over the same period. This trend reflects deepening earnings polarization in Korean stocks.
Semiconductor Operating Profit Expands to 220.5 Trillion Won by Fourth Quarter
KOSPI 200 total operating profit stood at 169.3 trillion won in the first quarter, with semiconductors contributing 94.8 trillion won (56% of total). By the second quarter, semiconductor operating profit is projected to reach 154.5 trillion won, raising its share to 69%. Third quarter projections show semiconductor profit at 205.4 trillion won (75%), climbing to 220.5 trillion won (77%) in the fourth quarter.
Non-semiconductor operating profit follows a contrasting trajectory, declining each quarter from 74.5 trillion won in Q1 to 69.5 trillion won in Q2, 68.3 trillion won in Q3, and 64.3 trillion won in Q4. The semiconductor sector's operating profit is expanding 2.3 times from Q1 to Q4, while non-semiconductor profit contracts by 14% over the same period.
Non-Semiconductor Sectors Show Mixed Performance Trends
Sector-level performance divergence is pronounced. BNK Investment & Securities noted that earnings momentum is slowing in food & beverage, defense, and power equipment sectors, while financials, shipbuilding, machinery, and healthcare maintain relatively solid profit growth. The analysis indicates that while overall KOSPI earnings are improving, actual growth is driven by semiconductors and select sectors, with most other industries experiencing slowdowns.
Second Quarter Earnings Season Gains Investor Focus
The concentration of earnings in semiconductors has elevated the significance of the second quarter earnings season. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have consecutively raised market earnings forecasts, yet investor attention is shifting from strong results to future earnings outlook. Samsung Electronics' stock showed weakness following its record earnings announcement, and SK Hynix experienced increased volatility alongside recent market corrections despite positive news of its US Nasdaq ADR listing.
Kim Sung-no, researcher at BNK Investment & Securities, stated, "The US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has already priced in forward 12-month expected earnings per share (EPS) levels around 650 points, requiring earnings announcements that exceed expectations to drive further stock price gains."
Yang Il-woo, head of Samsung Securities' Global Investment Strategy Team, commented, "The market is likely to view semiconductor companies' earnings announcements as a process of resolving short-term uncertainty. As third quarter earnings forecasts continue to be revised upward, attention will refocus on future earnings after the announcements."
FAQ
What is driving the increase in semiconductor profit concentration in KOSPI 200 stocks?
Semiconductor operating profit is expanding from 94.8 trillion won in the first quarter to a projected 220.5 trillion won in the fourth quarter—a 2.3-fold increase—while non-semiconductor operating profit declines from 74.5 trillion won to 64.3 trillion won over the same period. This divergence raises the semiconductor share of total KOSPI 200 operating profit from 56% in Q1 to 77% in Q4.
Which non-semiconductor sectors are showing relative strength in earnings?
According to BNK Investment & Securities, financials, shipbuilding, machinery, and healthcare sectors are maintaining relatively solid profit growth trends, while food & beverage, defense, and power equipment sectors are experiencing slowing earnings momentum.
