Nvidia Shares Rise Only 10% Year-to-Date as Forward P/E Collapses to 17x from Five-Year Average of 36x

According to BlockBeats and analyst Brian Colello at Morningstar, as of July 25, Nvidia's stock has risen only 10% year-to-date while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 71%, marking the index's most underperforming large cap. The company's forward EBITDA-based P/E ratio has collapsed to approximately 17x, down sharply from a five-year average of 36x and at its lowest level since July 2021.

Colello estimates Nvidia's fair value at around $280 per share, implying the current price of $212 reflects near-zero growth expectations post-2027. He projects the company will maintain revenue and adjusted EPS growth exceeding 45% annually through 2029, suggesting the market has overpriced competitive threats.