OpenAI executives are reportedly urging caution on the company's IPO timeline following SpaceX's turbulent public debut, according to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal and The Information. The development highlights risks in mega-AI listings as Polymarket traders price roughly 30-40% odds of no OpenAI IPO by end-2026. SpaceX priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, saw shares rocket to above $225 on June 17, then slide back to around $152.86 by June 26—a volatility pattern now reportedly influencing OpenAI's boardroom discussions. This caution comes amid investor skepticism in a high-stakes market where even blockbuster AI listings face immediate scrutiny over profitability and sustainability.
SpaceX Priced IPO at $135, Traded Near $152.86 by June 26
SpaceX priced its massive $75 billion IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026. Shares (SPCX) opened at $150, rocketed to an intraday high of $225+ on June 17, and briefly pushed the market cap above $2 trillion. However, the stock has since given up most gains, sliding sharply lower. As of June 26, SPCX trades around $152.86, hovering near its listing price after multiple double-digit daily drops. This volatility—a strong debut followed by swift 25-30% retracement—is now reportedly influencing OpenAI's boardroom.
Sarah Friar Reportedly Urged Waiting Until 2027
OpenAI filed confidentially with the SEC on June 8 but emphasized timing remains flexible. "It may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company," the company said. Sarah Friar has reportedly urged waiting until 2027, citing massive ongoing cash burn, compute infrastructure commitments, and the burden of public reporting. This creates tension with CEO Sam Altman, who favored a quicker timeline. Sources close to the matter (WSJ, The Information) confirm the SpaceX precedent is amplifying concerns. The Kobeissi Letter reported on June 25, 2026: "OpenAI is now 'leaning toward' pushing its IPO until 2027, per NYT. Details include: 1. 'Choppy' markets in recent weeks have led OpenAI to reconsider the timeline of the IPO 2. The company is worried it may not find much enthusiasm from retail investors."
OpenAI's Last Private Valuation Neared $850 Billion
OpenAI's last private valuation neared $850 billion, leaving little room for error if public markets turn skeptical. In today's market, even blockbuster listings face immediate scrutiny over profitability and lock-up expirations. OpenAI's IPO window remains open but uncertain. Watch SpaceX's stabilization in July, potential Anthropic moves, and OpenAI's Q3 updates. A delayed but stronger listing could still deliver historic returns, provided the company proves sustainable AI revenue amid cooling investor appetite for growth-at-all-costs stories.
FAQ
What did OpenAI executives do after SpaceX's IPO debut?
OpenAI executives are reportedly urging caution on the company's IPO timeline following SpaceX's turbulent public debut, according to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal and The Information.
Why is OpenAI reconsidering its IPO timeline?
Sarah Friar has reportedly urged waiting until 2027, citing massive ongoing cash burn, compute infrastructure commitments, and the burden of public reporting. The SpaceX precedent—where shares opened at $150 on June 11, 2026, peaked above $225 on June 17, then slid back to around $152.86 by June 26—is amplifying concerns about volatility in mega-AI listings.
What are the odds of an OpenAI IPO by end-2026?
Polymarket traders price roughly 30-40% odds of no OpenAI IPO by end-2026, underscoring investor skepticism in a high-stakes market.
