Retail Users Lose $294M on Kalshi Combo Bets Since 2026 Start

According to Bloomberg, retail users on prediction market Kalshi have accumulated net losses of approximately $294 million through combo bets (multi-leg wagers similar to parlay bets) since the start of 2026, excluding fees.

Combo bets now account for 36% of Kalshi's contract trading volume this month. Retail users typically trade as price takers, executing at displayed prices, while professional market makers and algorithmic traders profit on the other side. Data shows Kalshi combo bets carry an average implied win rate of only 9% in 2026, compared to 43% for non-combo markets, as retail users struggle to accurately price events with multiple correlated outcomes.