Robinhood Chief Broker Steven Quirk said the company's prediction market business has reached an annualized revenue of $500 million. According to data as of June 25 in Q2, Robinhood's active contract trading volume reached approximately 12.3 billion contracts, with Q2 prediction market revenue at least $123 million. Due to a decline in institutional trading volume, Q2 crypto revenue is expected to fall below Q1's $134 million.
Quirk said prediction market annualized revenue reaches $500 million, Q2 active contract trading volume reaches 12.3 billion contracts
As of June 25, Q2, Robinhood's active contract trading volume reached 12.3 billion contracts. Based on the standard rate of $0.01 per contract, Q2 prediction market revenue is at least $123 million; the annualized revenue run rate has reached $500 million, partly driven by World Cup event contracts.
In comparison, Q2 crypto revenue is expected to fall below $134 million, making prediction market likely to surpass crypto for the first time this quarter, becoming a higher-growth revenue source for Robinhood.
Rothera platform's first-week trading volume exceeds 900 million, aims to serve other brokers and institutions
Rothera is a joint venture prediction market platform between Robinhood and Susquehanna, with trading volume exceeding 900 million in its first week, bringing nearly 60% growth in active contract trading volume for Robinhood. Rothera currently uses a zero-fee (K=0) model to establish platform credibility; its legal documents use 0.6 cents as a pricing variable example, below the industry average level.
CEO Tenev has stated that Rothera's goal is to serve "other brokers, market makers, and institutions," not just Robinhood's own clients. Robinhood's current pricing model is $0.02 per contract ($0.01 to Robinhood, $0.01 to the exchange); through vertical integration, it plans to lower client pricing and retain more internal economic benefits, a strategy that has previously achieved success in the margin lending business.
Q2 crypto revenue expected to fall below $134 million, institutional trading volume decline is the main reason
According to Robinhood's preliminary data, cryptocurrency trading volume saw a significant decline in Q2, driven mainly by a reduction in institutional trading volume (which has lower fees). Q2 crypto revenue is expected to fall below Q1's $134 million; although there were signs of slight improvement in June, data for the final five trading days of Q2 has not yet been included. On the regulatory front in Indonesia, Indonesia banned Polymarket in May, classifying it as illegal online gambling, which brings regulatory uncertainty for Robinhood's prediction market international expansion.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is Robinhood's prediction market Q2 revenue calculated?
According to data as of June 25, 2026 (Q2), Robinhood's active contract trading volume reached 12.3 billion contracts; based on the standard rate of $0.01 per contract, Q2 prediction market revenue is at least $123 million. Quirk has stated that the company's prediction market annualized revenue run rate has reached $500 million.
What impact does the Rothera platform have on Robinhood's business model?
Rothera is a joint venture platform between Robinhood and Susquehanna, with trading volume exceeding 900 million in its first week. It currently uses a zero-fee model, planning to reduce client pricing from $0.02 through vertical integration (legal document example is 0.6 cents), while allowing Robinhood to retain more internal economic benefits. CEO Tenev stated that the goal is for Rothera to serve other brokers and institutions.
What is the main reason for the decline in Q2 crypto revenue?
According to Robinhood's preliminary data, Q2 crypto revenue is expected to fall below Q1's $134 million, mainly due to a decline in institutional trading volume, as institutional trading fees are lower, having a more significant impact on revenue.
