Satoshi Nakamoto posted a widely-cited comment on lost bitcoin on June 21, 2010 at 17:48:26 UTC in a Bitcointalk thread titled 'Dying bitcoins,' stating that lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Researchers estimate 3.1 million BTC are permanently lost as of June 20, 2026, with a central range of 2.7 million to 3.9 million BTC, according to multiple reports. The estimate represents roughly 15.5% of the 20,045,680.42 BTC circulating supply tracked by Glassnode as of June 20, 2026, though the figure cannot be proven with certainty. The ongoing debate over lost bitcoin stems from forgotten private keys, exchange failures, and coins sent to provable burn addresses, with researchers continuing to refine loss estimates using onchain dormancy data and entropy analysis.
The discussion occurred 16 years ago on June 21, 2010, in a Bitcointalk thread when a user asked whether forgotten wallets meant the network would shrink over time. After replies from Laszlo Hanyecz and Gavin Andresen, Satoshi answered at 17:48:26 UTC with the line that still circulates today. Satoshi also told Laszlo that computers would need to become roughly 2^200 times faster before recovering or stealing lost coins could outpace mining.
El Khatib and Legout Confirm 3,197.61 BTC Provably Burned Through April 2024
Mohamed El Khatib and Arnaud Legout published a 2025 study using entropy filtering and machine learning to identify burn addresses. Their count: 3,197.61 BTC permanently destroyed through block 840,682, dated April 24, 2024. The blockchain can confirm certain coins are unspendable but cannot confirm that an unmoved coin is lost rather than held. Add Bitcoin's unspendable 50 BTC genesis reward, and the provable floor barely moves. Since the 2025 study was published, additional bitcoin have been sent to known burn addresses, where the coins are effectively removed from circulation and are not expected to be spent again.
Glassnode Tracks 5.25 Million BTC Dormant Over Seven Years as of June 20, 2026
Glassnode's supply-by-age data for June 20, 2026, shows 3.557 million BTC untouched for more than 10 years, 1.690 million BTC sitting in the 7-to-10-year range, and 1.479 million BTC in the 5-to-7-year band. That puts roughly 5.25 million BTC dormant for over seven years and about 6.73 million BTC dormant for over five. Glassnode treats coins inactive beyond seven years as 'Inert Supply,' calling it likely lost. But old coins still move. Treating every dormant coin as gone overstates the case.
Sergio Demian Lerner Identifies Patoshi Pattern Totaling 1.1 Million BTC
Sergio Demian Lerner's original research identified a single dominant miner active in 2009 and 2010, producing what became known as the 'Patoshi' pattern, totaling about 1.1 million BTC. BitMEX Research later argued that the figure runs too high, putting the number closer to 700,000 to 750,000 BTC. Whale Alert, as reported by Bitcoin.com News, pushed the estimate the other direction, to 1,125,150 BTC across the first 54,316 blocks. Whether analysts count that stash as lost, dormant, or simply unattributed swings the total lost-coin estimate by hundreds of thousands of BTC.
River's 2025 Report Estimates 1.57 Million BTC Lost in Self-Custody
River's 2025 custody report estimates 1.57 million BTC permanently lost through self-custody, with 98% of those losses occurring before 2020. River also notes more than 3 million BTC lost or lost through exchanges overall, though it cautions that public lawsuits and bankruptcies only support low-end estimates. A person may install a new bitcoin wallet and neglect to back up the seed phrase tied to the funds. If that individual's phone is later wiped, access to the BTC held in the wallet could be lost permanently. Self-custodial wallet providers do not possess these seed phrases, meaning the responsibility for safeguarding the mnemonic phrase rests entirely with the user.
Mt Gox Loses Roughly 740,000 BTC, Later Recovers Portion for Rehabilitation Distribution
Mt Gox's roughly 740,000 BTC loss illustrates the problem. Some of those coins were later recovered and are now moving through a rehabilitation distribution plan, meaning the original loss figure no longer represents permanent destruction.
James Howells Loses 7,000-8,000 BTC in Welsh Landfill, High Court Dismisses Case in January 2025
Welsh IT engineer James Howells accidentally discarded a laptop hard drive containing the private keys to 7,000 to 8,000 bitcoin. The drive ended up in the Docksway landfill in Newport, Wales, where it has remained buried beneath hundreds of thousands of tons of waste. Over the years, Howells assembled a team of specialists and obtained financial backing for an excavation effort, but Newport City Council repeatedly denied permission, citing risks associated with methane gas, asbestos, and toxic leachate. In January 2025, the High Court dismissed his legal challenge, ruling that the case had no realistic prospect of success. At current prices, Howells' lost cache is valued at nearly half a billion U.S. dollars.
FAQ
What does 'lost bitcoin' mean in the context of the 3.1 million BTC estimate?
Lost bitcoin refers to coins that researchers believe are permanently inaccessible due to forgotten private keys, exchange failures, or provable destruction through burn addresses. The 3.1 million BTC estimate as of June 20, 2026 includes a central range of 2.7 million to 3.9 million BTC, though this figure cannot be proven with certainty since the blockchain cannot distinguish between lost coins and coins that are simply held long-term.
How do researchers prove that bitcoin are permanently lost?
Mohamed El Khatib and Arnaud Legout's 2025 study used entropy filtering and machine learning to identify burn addresses, confirming 3,197.61 BTC permanently destroyed through block 840,682 dated April 24, 2024. This represents the provable floor of lost bitcoin. Beyond this, researchers use dormancy metrics from sources like Glassnode, which tracks coins by age, but cannot prove that unmoved coins are lost rather than held.
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated 1.1 million BTC ever move?
Sergio Demian Lerner's research identified the 'Patoshi' pattern totaling about 1.1 million BTC from a single dominant miner active in 2009 and 2010, though BitMEX Research estimates the figure closer to 700,000-750,000 BTC. These coins have remained untouched, but whether they will ever move remains unknown since ownership cannot be confirmed onchain.
