Seoul forex dealers predicted on the 10th that the USD-KRW exchange rate could test support at the 1,500 won level. The forecast was driven by declining international oil prices, a falling dollar index, and expectations of continued net buying by foreign investors in Korean stocks. Market attention has shifted from Middle East geopolitical tensions to supply-demand dynamics, with dealers noting that geopolitical sensitivity has diminished even as conflicts persist.
Oil Price Decline and Dollar Weakness Drive Won Strength
International oil prices continued to decline despite news of military exchanges between the United States and Iran. The dollar index also maintained a downward trend. Dealers identified these two factors as primary drivers pushing the USD-KRW exchange rate lower. Foreign investors were expected to sustain net buying in the Korean stock market, providing additional support for won appreciation.
SK Hynix ADR Listing Scheduled That Night
SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipt (ADR) listing on Nasdaq was scheduled for that night. Dealers noted that currency conversion operations related to the listing could intensify. The new dollar liquidity supply associated with the ADR listing was identified as a factor contributing to downward pressure on the exchange rate. One dealer stated that expectations surrounding the listing could drive foreign investors to adjust positions ahead of the event.
Three Bank Dealers Forecast 1,495-1,512 Won Range
A Bank dealer predicted the USD-KRW exchange rate would tilt downward amid global dollar weakness, with foreign net stock buying expected to continue due to anticipation of the SK Hynix ADR listing. The dealer provided a forecast range of 1,495.00-1,510.00 won. B Bank dealer cited oil price decline and dollar weakness as downward factors, but noted that aggressive low-price buying near the 1,500 won level would limit further declines. The dealer expected weakening foreign rebalancing activity and position adjustment flows related to the ADR listing to lead won strength, forecasting a range of 1,495.00-1,510.00 won. C Bank dealer anticipated foreign net buying following a semiconductor stock rebound in overnight New York trading. The dealer identified the SK Hynix ADR listing as a source of new dollar liquidity supply, while noting that settlement demand would emerge near the 1,500 won level. The forecast range was 1,498.00-1,512.00 won.
NY NDF Market Closed at 1,504.90 Won
In the New York Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) market, the 1-month USD-KRW contract closed at 1,504.90 won (MID). Accounting for the recent 1-month swap point of -1.15 won, the NDF rate represented a 0.05 won decline compared to the Seoul market closing price. Dealers noted that substantial low-price buying demand was concentrated near the 1,500 won level, making it difficult for the exchange rate to settle in the 1,400 won range. If foreign exchange authorities implemented smoothing operations (fine-tuning) ahead of the weekend, dealers expected the USD-KRW decline to expand.
FAQ
What did Seoul forex dealers predict for USD-KRW on the 10th?
Seoul forex dealers predicted on the 10th that the USD-KRW exchange rate could test support at the 1,500 won level, driven by declining oil prices, dollar weakness, and expected foreign net buying in Korean stocks.
Why did dealers cite the SK Hynix ADR listing as a factor?
The SK Hynix ADR listing on Nasdaq was scheduled for that night, and dealers identified currency conversion operations and new dollar liquidity supply associated with the listing as factors contributing to downward pressure on the USD-KRW exchange rate.
What exchange rate range did bank dealers forecast?
Three bank dealers provided forecast ranges between 1,495.00 won and 1,512.00 won, with all noting that low-price buying demand near 1,500 won would limit further declines despite downward pressure from oil and dollar weakness.
