TD Cowen Cuts Nakamoto Price Target 58% to $17 After Bitcoin Outlook Reset

According to TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete, the bank lowered its price target for Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA) to $17 on Monday, representing a 58% cut from its previous $40 target on a split-adjusted basis. The reduction follows bitcoin's decline, which has pressured the debt-heavy capital structure of David Bailey's bitcoin treasury company.

TD Cowen's revised base case assumes bitcoin will climb back to $100,000 by end-2026, roughly 25% below its $126,000 all-time high from October 2025. Despite the lower target, the bank maintained its Buy rating, with the new price objective implying nearly 275% upside from NAKA's current trading level. The analysts cited bitcoin holdings as the primary value driver, noting that Nakamoto's debt and preferred securities make common shares more sensitive to bitcoin price movements.