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U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 4.23% as Warsh Shifts Fed Policy Communication

2026-06-23 05:19:27

On Monday (June 22), U.S. Treasury yields surged following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's signals that market expectations, rather than Fed guidance, should drive rate, inflation, and economic outlooks. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.23%, breaking through the Fed's policy rate ceiling of 3.50–3.75%. The benchmark 10-year yield also climbed about 5 basis points to 4.51%, which influences 30-year mortgage pricing. The moves came despite U.S. crude oil falling below $74 per barrel, breaking a four-month pattern where bond yields had moved in sync with oil prices, signaling investor expectations of potential future rate increases.

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In-Depth Analysis

U.S. bank predicts: the Fed will raise rates 3 times this year, and only cut rates in 2028

Market Whisper4h ago

Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%–3.75% as Warsh Prioritizes 2% Inflation Target

Lucas Bennett14h ago

FOMC dot plot: March vs June—how will the market reprice after the number of rate cuts dropped from 12 to 9 hikes?

Gate Instant Trends22h ago

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