US small business confidence improved in June, with the optimism index rising to 97.4 — a 2.1-point increase from the previous month. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released the data July 14 local time, showing the rebound from a 19-month low and movement toward the 52-year average of 98. Fuel cost declines provided relief to businesses and consumers, while companies expressed expectations for improved operating conditions over the next six months, NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg stated. The improvement in US stocks sentiment reflects easing cost pressures, though the uncertainty index remained elevated at 89 — well above the historical average of 68 — as high interest rates and slow economic growth continued to weigh on hiring and capital spending decisions.
NFIB Index Components Show Broad-Based Improvement
Seven of the 10 components in the NFIB optimism index increased in June, while three declined, according to the federation's report. The uncertainty index fell 2 points to 89, though it remained significantly above the historical average of 68. The overall index of 97.4 approached the long-term average of 98, marking a recovery from the previous month's 19-month low.
![]()
Small business optimism index trend. Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
Fuel Cost Declines and Business Expectations Drive Confidence Gains
"Current economic conditions are providing small business owners with encouraging changes and ongoing challenges simultaneously," NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg stated. Declining fuel costs offered welcome relief to both businesses and consumers, he explained. Businesses anticipate improved operating conditions over the next six months, Dunkelberg added.
High Interest Rates and Uncertainty Continue to Constrain Business Activity
"While the overall environment has improved, high interest rates and moderate economic growth are causing owners to maintain a cautious stance on hiring and capital expenditures," Dunkelberg stated. The uncertainty index of 89 remained substantially above the historical average of 68, reflecting persistent concerns among small business owners despite the month-over-month improvement in confidence.
FAQ
What was the US small business optimism index in June?
The NFIB small business optimism index reached 97.4 in June, representing a 2.1-point increase from the previous month and approaching the 52-year average of 98.
Why did US small business confidence improve in June?
Fuel cost declines provided relief to businesses and consumers, and companies expressed expectations for improved operating conditions over the next six months, according to NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.
What factors are constraining small business activity despite improved confidence?
High interest rates and moderate economic growth are causing business owners to maintain caution on hiring and capital expenditures, while the uncertainty index of 89 remains well above the historical average of 68.
