Market View

The most panic-inducing market situation has appeared, and then it V-ed.

I have been referencing the content I posted a few days ago yesterday and today.

The most "fearful" situation is if the price drops below 100,000 without a quick recovery, but there is a scenario where it effectively recovers on the daily chart.

I think this scenario is completely played out, and the family's panic is also as expected.

I think this is a very interesting thing, that is, I know that my family will panic, and my family also knows that they will panic, but they panic anyway.

The reason is probably that although we anticipated this situation, we did not wait to buy until it fell below 100,000. Instead, we bought in batches at 107 and 102, and placed an order at 98 (which was not filled). Therefore, many family members also experienced unrealized losses when the price dropped yesterday.

If family members do not manage their positions well, they actually suffer significant unrealized losses, and even when position management is done properly, seeing unrealized losses is still quite painful.

I believe that there is no perfect solution to this situation. Because dropping below 100,000 is my worst expectation, not my main expectation, and from a probabilistic standpoint, the likelihood of it happening is relatively low. Therefore, it is not feasible to remain in a completely short position waiting for the worst expectation to materialize before taking action (especially since I generally enter and exit on the left side).

So the possible conclusion is that when faced with a panic-inducing market, just choose to do whatever needs to be done and overcome the fear of trading (Personally, I no longer feel much about the ups and downs, this is mainly to share with family).

Back to the market

BTC V returning above 102 is a relatively good initial response, but we need to observe the next moves.

The current resistance above is around the original support of 106200. I believe that altcoins won't have a significant reaction before reclaiming 106200 (even though the lows have already appeared); after breaking above 106200, altcoins may rebound more strongly than BTC.

In terms of the timeline, the bottom is at the beginning of November, the top at the end of the month, a pullback at the beginning of December but not breaking the low point, and then taking off in December. This is the expectation for this month (previously shared).

Given that such low points have already appeared, the subsequent market will not revisit lows below 100,000, but a significant surge is expected to come only after the U.S. government shutdown ends; it is anticipated to be after November 14.

The following detailed script can be written like this.

11.5-11.6 rebounds to above 106200 and starts to consolidate.
11.7-11.13 Bitcoin sideways movement and altcoins decline
11.14-11.21 Bitcoin rebounded to 116, altcoins followed the rebound.
From 11.21 to 11.28, Bitcoin traded sideways above 116, testing upwards towards 118, while altcoins continued to recover.
11.28-12.5 Bitcoin correction, altcoin correction
The final wave of the main rise officially starts after 12.5.

The script is for reference only.

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