Biupa-TZC

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幣齡 4 年
最高等級 5
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行情觀點
71800受阻回調,下方支撐695-690關鍵區間
昨日觀點中我們提出71800打到之後可能會回調,儘管不認為是大的頂部。昨晚觸及71800後行情開始回調,目前到達69500附近
71800回調的邏輯是可能會橫掃EQH之後下跌,實際走法也正是如此
下方的支撐是69500(monday mid)以及69000(周二晚上低點)。如果在此處再次支撐,可能短時向上還有希望觸及73-74區間
如果此處跌破,那麼Monday Low 67300是絕對不能跌破的重要位置,跌破則意味著周線反彈失敗
我個人傾向於此處在695-690區間支撐後在本週內再次向上測試73-74區間
溢價方面,從19號開始一直到現在都是處於CB負溢價,可以看出美盤避險情緒仍然濃厚
不過我們也需要指出12月15號-1月15號反彈期間CB都處於負溢價(其中短時間的一些正溢價都是頂部),因此長期負溢價和下跌並不能完全等同。這裡之前的行情觀點中有所提到
本⽂由 #BCGAME 贊助|@bcgame @bcgamecoin
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炒A股的人確實比較大驚小怪
周一A股大盤指數跌了3%多,上刷到都是狗叫
跌了3%多可能對於幣圈只是平平無奇的一天
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Market Analysis
69200 rebounded as expected, with 73-74 as the next target
On the evening of the 23rd, I pointed out that if the pullback after the rebound doesn't break below 69200, I expect continued uptrend
Last night, the market dropped to 68900 but closed above 69200, subsequently rebounding to the 71000 range
Currently, the small-level resistance above is at 71800. If this level is broken through, I believe it will touch the 73-74 resistance zone
1H breakthrough of 71800 = 73-74
I believe this target will likely be achieved with high probability
At 73-74, we need to observe whether it tr
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行情觀點
對於週一的預期
今天是週日晚,也是美國週日上午,明天美股就要開盤了,我認為行情的走法會很大程度上取決於週一的消息面以及開盤後美股的走法
消息面
目前的消息面仍然處在「川普48小時時間窗口」內,即川普給了伊朗的48小時最後通牒。這一最後通牒應該是在亞洲區的明晚結束,也就是開盤前後我們能知道伊朗是否會同意並停火。如果出現這一消息,我認為對盤面會有提振作用
如果伊朗沒有發出消息停火,那麼球將回到川普這邊。他老仍然有兩個選擇,第一個是儘管伊朗沒讓步,他老可以單方面宣佈自己已經勝利並且不再進一步打仗,那麼市場會繼續按照「TACO」的預期來處理
第二是真的川普會去轟炸伊朗的核設施,也是最差的情況。我預計會在轟炸的時候造成市場下跌。但如果不立刻跌破63000,情況還不是特別糟
美股
週五是否觸底?
週五觸及到下降通道下邊界,在最後一小時反彈;在閉盤後(5點22分)川普提出「可能要unwind伊朗戰爭」,疑似老鼠倉買入
但週六川普又提到了潛在的轟炸,這一點並沒有在股票中體現(因為閉盤),不過在幣圈得到反饋
所以只有結合消息面最終的結論,我們才能知道美股是否已經觸底
若週一出現停火,結合週五晚上的反彈確認是老鼠倉買入,那麼行情應該會確認觸底並反彈。美股和幣應該會同期反彈向上。6500確認是支撐
而如果週一戰爭烈度進一步加大,對行情會非常不利,週五尾盤的買入則被理解成多頭反攻失敗
總結
現在
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Market Perspective
Sweep Below 69 Then Rebound
In the perspective from two days ago, I pointed out one possibility was a rebound after sweeping 69
After reaching below 69 yesterday (I went to sleep early), there was a rebound, currently around 1500 points up
Whether we've bottomed is unclear, I believe the sweep depth may not be sufficient
I think it will go to the 68-67 range before rebounding, but here we only slightly broke below 69
Order book data suggests this could be a bottom, but not "extreme" (BTC amount below 10% is high, but not extremely high)
Not extreme enough has two scenarios:
BTC-3.35%
SOL-5.5%
XRP-3.74%
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Family members, have you thought about what happens when you get old?
If you don't get married = likely no children, how do you plan for retirement care?
Having enough money "theoretically" allows you to hire people, but there are many examples both domestically and internationally where elderly people are exploited and robbed blind
Technological advancement offers two new pathways:
1. Brain-computer interfaces - literally lie in a nutrient pod and spend your final years in Sword Art Online
2. Embodied AI (EAI) as a provider of elderly care
Hoping to live healthily long enough to see these two
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我看到目前BTC两種潛在路徑
其一是71000附近撐住反彈
其二是清掃69的流動性後反彈
兩種路徑我認為都會指向更高
BTC-3.35%
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Market Outlook
Break through 74, expecting 78-81 by end of March
Bitcoin briefly broke through 74 this morning and is currently hovering around 74
As mentioned earlier, we should watch the range movement on Monday. If it breaks through 74, it may reach the 78-81 range
Currently, I am inclined to believe that we will break through 74 this week, then break through to the 78-81 range by the end of March
On smaller timeframes, we can see that $BTC 's pullbacks have been very shallow, rejecting deep pullbacks; the order book below is also continuously pushing upward
Therefore, formally breaking thr
BTC-3.35%
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事不過三,這次怕是要真突破了
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Market Perspective
Bitcoin rebounded after support at the 70.5k level; observe Monday's range for trading
After encountering resistance at 73.5k, Bitcoin declined approximately 3000 points back to the 70.5k range
However, it did not decline further nor test the Monday high of 69.5k, instead rebounding at 70.5k
Asian session on Sunday reached a high of 72k, currently back around 71.5k
CME closing price at 71.3k, therefore expected to potentially close in a narrow 71.5-71.3k range before tomorrow morning
Monday's price action will be quite key
If Monday tests 73.5k again and breaks through effec
BTC-3.35%
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Market Analysis
Touched 74K again, short-term blocked, awaiting 4H closing to determine next moves
Last night's analysis pointed out that probabilities around 70K up and down were close, but leaning upward, with reasons including 1H-level bullish structure, moving averages, CB positive premium, etc. (though I didn't place trades based on this)
The market broke through triangle convergence this morning. I suggested that after Bitcoin breaks the triangle convergence, it may test the 73,500 zone upward
Easy Lihui's short selling information also provided theoretical support for the market rally
A
BTC-3.35%
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易理華空了,可以拉盤了。 @狗莊
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Market Analysis
Still oscillating at high levels, waiting for boundaries to place trades
Bitcoin continues oscillating in the 70K range, neither breaking down nor breaking through, marking the third day of boring market action
For me, this remains unable to place trades, so I choose to stay on the sidelines with empty positions and observe
Small timeframe: 71700 resistance above, 74000 resistance, 66000 support below
Large timeframe: 78000-81000 bulls profit-taking zone above, 57000-60000 test new lows recovery zone below
Between the small timeframe boundaries, still unable to place trades
If
BTC-3.35%
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和 NAS100 比較,ES 算是較差的了
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4H級別
均線呈現空頭,目前在4H EMA200附近
如果宏觀利好推動,配合戰爭結束,在三月下旬最高可能達到78000-81000區間
下方的清掃區間最低可以達到57000-60000區間。如果到達這一區間我認為會有激烈的反彈
總體來說,在大的震盪區間之內做單難度較高
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