The probability of a fall for #比特币行情观察 still dominates, and the target position is clear.

1. Short-term trend: A fall to the key support level of 85,000-88,000 USD in the short term, as global capital risk aversion and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance will continue to suppress the market. If the rebound ends, the next target will point to the 85,000-88,000 USD range, which is close to the low range after the "Liberation Day" in April and has certain technical support.
2. Mid-term trend: It depends on policy and liquidity changes. If negative policies further escalate, or if the Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate policy, Bitcoin may dip to the $80,000 threshold, and there is even a possibility of continuing panic testing around $75,000 to $76,000 next year. Conversely, if there are signs of policy easing, combined with continuous inflow of ETF funds, a phase bottom may form around $85,000, entering a consolidation phase.
3. Long-term trend: The four-year cycle has not prematurely failed.
In April 2025, Bitcoin will complete its fourth halving. Based on historical experience, the upward cycle after the halving usually lasts 12-18 months, and the year of the crash according to the four-year cycle is 2026. Although this crash is a phase adjustment triggered by policy shocks, some funds have expectations of a crash next year. Given the significant magnitude of each crash (as shown in the figure below), some market funds are suspected of trying to escape for safety.