#数字资产行情上升 Bitcoin 1-hour chart hints: seemingly calm, but actually turbulent currents beneath

Having traded for many years, I’ve seen plenty of subtle signs of bull and bear reversals. The current hourly chart is playing out an invisible battle between bullish and bearish funds—don’t be fooled by the "dormant" appearance of Bollinger Band squeeze; the MACD DIF and DEA repeatedly approaching below the zero line often indicate the market’s silent accumulation before a move.

I analyze this situation from three perspectives:

**What can technical analysis reveal?** The price is firmly suppressed by the middle band of BOLL, but there’s a detail—volume increases during declines, while it shrinks during rebounds. This is indeed a sign of weakness. However, the MACD histogram has already shown early signs of bullish divergence; the price makes new lows but momentum doesn’t weaken accordingly, similar to a bow fully drawn, ready to release the arrow.

**What story does on-chain data tell?** Over the past day, exchange net inflows show 32,000 BTC pouring in, while large whale addresses are gradually accumulating. Retail investors are panic-selling, but institutions are quietly accumulating—this contrast often indicates a short-term bottom is forming.

**What opportunities does the macro environment provide?** The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggest the possibility of interest rate cuts, and spot Bitcoin ETF holdings are growing against the trend, indicating that the market’s liquidity tightening expectations are easing, giving crypto assets some breathing room.

**How to trade?** Market sentiment has already become overly fearful, but smart money is positioning. If the price can consolidate sideways in this zone for 4 to 6 hours, and then break above the middle band with a MACD golden cross and increased volume, a short-term rebound could head straight for 92,500. Conversely, if volume breaks down, it’s time to exit decisively.

The core of trading is never about guessing the right direction, but about executing plans and discipline. Currently, I’ve placed multiple buy orders, waiting for the market to validate this logic. Remember—good market conditions often appear at the most desperate moments and continue when everyone is hesitant.