Southern Copper Surges 4.9% as Copper Rally Gains Traction

The mining sector is having a moment, and Southern Copper (SCCO) is riding the wave. The stock climbed 4.9% in its last session to close at $207.93, marking another strong move for the copper-focused miner. What’s more interesting is the volume behind it—investors were actively trading, signaling genuine conviction. Over the past month alone, SCCO has delivered a solid 38.1% return, putting it on the radar of traders watching commodity-linked plays.

The Copper Story Behind the Rally

Here’s what’s fueling the momentum: copper prices themselves have been on a tear. The metal has surged 40.8% year-over-year and is currently trading near all-time highs around $6 per pound. Supply constraints are part of the narrative—tightening supplies amid strong global demand are keeping prices elevated. For a producer like Southern Copper, higher commodity prices translate directly into fatter margins and stronger profitability, which explains the stock’s outperformance.

The company is expected to report quarterly EPS of $1.46, representing a impressive 44.6% year-over-year increase. Revenue is projected at $3.62 billion, up 30% from the comparable quarter last year. On paper, these numbers look bullish and suggest the earnings strength could support continued stock appreciation.

The Caution Flag: Earnings Estimates Under Pressure

But here’s where it gets tricky. While top-line and bottom-line growth looks solid, earnings estimate revisions tell a different story. Over the past month, the consensus EPS estimate for SCCO has actually been revised downward by 1.3%. Research shows that negative trends in earnings estimate revisions often precede weakness in stock performance. In other words, the jump might be more about momentum than fundamental improvement—something worth monitoring closely.

The stock carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), reflecting mixed signals beneath the surface strength.

Mining Sector Dynamics: The CDE Comparison

Within the mining space, performance is mixed. Coeur Mining (CDE), another player in the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry, moved in the opposite direction—falling 4.1% to $24.57 in the last session. However, CDE has still managed a 43.7% gain over the past 30 days. Its EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter stands at $0.33, though it has been cut by 15.9% over the past month.

The contrast is notable: Coeur Mining received a more bullish Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), despite the estimate cuts. This divergence underscores how different metrics can paint different pictures of the same sector.

What’s Next for SCCO?

Southern Copper’s 4.9% move is impressive, but sustainability is the real question. Copper prices will remain the critical driver—as long as supply remains constrained and demand stays robust, the tailwinds persist. However, the downward revision in earnings estimates suggests caution is warranted. Watch for any shifts in consensus expectations; if revisions stabilize or turn positive, that could provide more conviction to the recent bounce.