Can HBAR's Bullish Divergence Signal a Turnaround After 35% Plunge?

Hedera (HBAR) is navigating rough waters as March 2026 unfolds. The token has endured a severe correction since mid-January, declining roughly 35% during the market-wide selloff that peaked in early February. From its November highs, losses now exceed 40%. Yet beneath the surface, intriguing technical signals are emerging. A bullish divergence between money flow metrics and price action suggests institutional or smart money may be accumulating quietly, even as retail panic selling weighs down prices. The question now is whether this divergence can overcome mounting structural headwinds—or whether additional breakdown looms ahead.

Capital Quietly Accumulating—Signs of Bullish Divergence Emerging

The most compelling evidence of underlying strength lies in the bullish divergence formed between price momentum and capital flow indicators. While HBAR’s price has trended lower since late October 2025, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)—a metric that tracks whether institutional capital is flowing into or out of an asset—has moved in the opposite direction, trending higher.

Specifically, between late December and early February, HBAR declined sharply, yet CMF continued climbing. This divergence signals that despite falling prices, significant capital continued to accumulate. The Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures dip-buying activity, tells a similar story. For over two months, as HBAR’s price fell, MFI trended upward—indicating traders were consistently buying weakness. MFI currently sits near 41, and a break above 54 would confirm this bullish divergence is strengthening.

This pattern reveals the falling wedge chart structure that has contained HBAR since late October. A falling wedge—formed by lower highs and lower lows within a narrowing band—typically signals weakening selling pressure and sets the stage for eventual rebounds. The bullish divergence reinforces this structure, suggesting accumulation is occurring at lower prices rather than panic distribution.

The Volume Conundrum: Why Bullish Divergence Could Face Headwinds

However, the bullish divergence story becomes complicated when examined through the lens of volume and exchange flows. On-Balance Volume (OBV), which measures whether trading volume supports or contradicts price trends, has been deteriorating. In late January, OBV broke below a key descending trendline and has continued weakening since October—creating a bearish divergence of its own. Every rally attempt has lacked strong volume backing, suggesting conviction is limited.

This weakness is corroborated by spot exchange flow data. For approximately 14 weeks through early February, HBAR experienced consistent weekly net outflows—more tokens exiting exchanges than entering. This extended streak suggests steady accumulation, aligning with the MFI divergence. Yet the weakening OBV repeatedly capped upside rallies, preventing any meaningful recovery.

The streak only recently broke. In early February, HBAR recorded its first meaningful week of net inflows since October, totaling approximately $749,000. This marks a significant inflection point—the transition from the three-month accumulation phase to potential distribution. This volume shift explains the OBV breakdown and suggests the market may no longer be absorbing supply at previous rates. Without sustained outflows driving demand, future rallies could face greater resistance, or fail to materialize at all.

Critical Price Levels in March—Where HBAR’s Direction Gets Decided

With mixed signals across momentum, money flow, and volume metrics, price levels now carry outsized importance for determining whether the bullish divergence can catalyze a genuine rebound. The current price around $0.10 (as of mid-March 2026) sits in critical territory.

On the downside, the key support zone sits near $0.076. If HBAR maintains a hold above this level and CMF and MFI continue improving, rebound attempts remain viable. However, a clean breakdown below $0.076 would signal sellers have regained control—a scenario OBV weakness is already hinting at. In that case, targets open toward $0.062, with further downside to $0.043.

On the upside, the first resistance hurdle is $0.090. Reclaiming this zone would demonstrate early confidence returning and would require OBV to improve simultaneously. Above $0.090 lies the major test: $0.107. A sustained break above $0.107 would represent a breakout from the falling wedge pattern and would activate the wedge’s measured target, pointing to potential 52% upside over time.

For now, that scenario remains a conditional long shot. The bullish divergence provides hope—evidence that smart money hasn’t completely abandoned HBAR. Yet the volume deterioration and broken outflow streak introduce meaningful uncertainty. The next few weeks will reveal whether the bullish divergence matures into a genuine recovery catalyst or whether HBAR continues testing its structural support levels.