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SaaS companies are going to get mauled by AI over the next 12 months.
customers are now spending so much on claude code they’re cutting saas software budgets to pay for it
> they’re replacing SaaS with AI agents.
> demanding 1-3 year contracts vs. standard 5-year terms.
net-dollar retention rates have dropped 15% for trad saas (customers paying less annually) whereas anthropic’s has surged 500% for 9/10 of the fortune 10
pretty insane seeing this quick of a turnover

leopold aschenbrenner just released his fund's latest investment portfolio & honestly its not what i expected
he's gone massively short the entire semiconductor supply chain but also revealed what he thinks the next AI constraint is:
> biggest surprise: he's short intel. he sold out of his massive Intel position that made him famous.
> he's also gone short $9B worth of puts in nvidia, asml, amd, oracle and van ecks semi etf.
> biggest long positions are in memory (sandisk) and power (bloom) with a combined $3.5B value (these are his next bottlenecks)
> he trimmed ~$1B of bloom energy position

anthropic has recently achieved insane pricing power, customers are now eating millions of dollars in claude costs (microsoft alone is spending $500M this year)
and its about to get even more astronomical:
> anthropic recently changed their pricing model from a flat fee to a usage-based model. pay-per-tokens-used
> as a result their ARR has skyrocketed to $45 billion, rev is now on par with openai
the customers? they're all-in:
> 1 company reported claude usage QUADRUPLED in last 3 months thanks to claude ai agents (this was from a single agent flow btw)
that same company boosted sales by $1M

deepseek is raising a monster $7 billion round at $50B val making it china's largest ever AI raise but what shocks me the most is the founder, liang wenfeng:
> he's personally contributing 40% of the round himself. $3 billion.
> he owns 90 PERCENT of the company (unheard of at this valuation)
> deepseek was founded inside his hedge fund, one of China's most successful funds.
guys a fucking beast. this round is meant to achieve 2 things:
1. acquire as much compute to push out new deepseek models more often
2. turn deepseek revenue-positive by pushing new enterprise products (same tactic as OAI

this is the only chart you need to pay attention to going forwards.
demand for tokens is insatiable.
we’re about to witness meteoric increase in consumption from enterprises, agents, consumers and knowledge workers
every single layer of the working economy needs tokens.
that’s the thesis for investing in AI infra.
yes there will be times where it gets too hot (see today) but ultimately this ship ain’t slowing down.

anthropic is going after the $300B consulting sector with a new $1.5B consulting arm that seeks to put claude into every mid-size company
this is exactly what deloitte, mckinsey, accenture do... but anthropic is cutting them out. ruthless but imo the economics make sense:
> anthropic will send applied AI engineers to private equity portfolio companies to create custom-claude solutions...
> its a genius model: blackstone alone owns 250+ companies generating $300B in rev, imagine if claude doubles that and takes a fee
why? anthropic's biggest revenue earner is enterprise, their CFO: "Enterprise

damn this will be looked back on as a terrible decision.
selling gpus to china was a great way to:
> throttle their development (sell them older models)
> keep their progress in AI predictable
> force chinese models to rely on american hardware
banning nvidia from china means china is forced to catch up with their own chip makers… and they have
deepseek, kimi, qwen are all being forced to use huawei chips, the models are just below frontier US labs
once they catch up china has everything it needs to outpace the west:
> all the energy (3X the USA)
> all the research talent (50% live in china)

holy shit, looks like the AI doomers were (very) wrong. absolute MONSTER earnings with no bubble in sight
google, meta and amazon crushed:
> google, Meta and amazon not only beat expectations by 50-94%, they expanded profit margins *thanks to AI*.
> AI chips depreciation is a complete myth. profit margin increased dramatically despite the capex spend.
> amazon AWS and google cloud are PRINTING cash. their big $200 B infra bet on chips has paid off massively. demand is off the charts.
> Meta tripled their ai daily-users and are printing cash on ai-advertising (zero leverage btw all free-cash fl

massive earnings day tmrw - google, amazon, microsoft, meta and apple are spending $600B+ on AI this year, tmrw we find out if its worth it,
some indicators over the last 7 days:
- openai is back. codex isn't good, its fucking great and developers are switching over.
- consensus: gpt 5.5 > opus 4.7
- "openai missed revenue target" this is a LAGGING indicator. codex wasn't good back then, gpt 5.4 wasn't competitive. now they're both #1
- microsoft came out winning in the openai break-up. they take 20% of openai rev, can support competitors on azure and don't have to pay openai azure rev. they a

i mean this is just insane
google and amazon now collectively own ~39% of anthropic
anthropic’s biggest competitor google is investing $40 billion in a bid to launch claude mythos to the public.
new deal gives them $10B upfront, targeting 5GW of compute in 2027
comes right after Amazon’s $5B investment this week…
no secret anthropic under-invested in scaling compute to train and serve their models
race is on to beat openAI after a p impressive gpt 5.5 launch

it's fucking crazy to me that the #1 AI investor of our time is a tier-1 criminal
sam bankman-fried would be up $44 billion if he hadn't got caught
his $200K cursor investment alone would be worth $3.3B (16,700% return 🤯)
> $500M into anthropic worth $30,000,000,000
> $650M in robinhood worth $4,000,000,000
the hit-rate of this guy was, shady shit aside, in a league of its own
has there been any other individual that matched this streak?

google has assembled an emergency 'strike team' to improve their coding AI models after falling behind anthropic
target: a superior coding agent that can self-improve, research and build future models
> the model will be used internally and trained on Google's proprietary code.
> google has an internal Leaderboard tracking engineer's token expenditure on coding (same as meta)
> urgency comes after anthropic and openai basically automate 100% of their coding (google doesn't)
google founder sergey brin is leading the charge:
"To win the final sprint, we must urgently bridge the gap in agentic e

it must be so nice being anthropic's CFO right now.
> fielding share offers at $1 trillion val
> went from -91% gross margins to 40% since joining
> raised $60B war-chest pre IPO
> shopping for $500M ai teams to acquire
fantastic report on Anthropic's secretive CFO Krishna Rao from the Information

can’t make this up
Allbirds (the sustainable shoe company) has pivoted to sell AI GPUs
stock is up +360% 15 mins into market open
renamed company to ‘NewBird AI’ 😂
crazy to think they were worth $4 billion once