This week's BTC movement looks very "emotional," but when broken down, it's actually a complete logical chain—price action → capital flow → macro background → policy expectations. **What’s happening on the chart** BTC has followed a standard three-phase pattern this week: initially pushing up to the 94-95K range, then encountering selling pressure and pulling back, followed by sideways consolidation at the 90-92K level. The weekly high and low range from 88.4K to 94.7K, with a volatility of about 7%, but the actual weekly return isn't that exaggerated—typical of a "high volatility, low net gain" pattern. What’s behind the key psychological level of $90K? Look deeper—this isn’t a coincidence, but a genuine reaction from on-chain large holders and institutions. Liquidity distribution, futures funding rates, large wallet movements—these micro signals are telling traders: there is disagreement at this price level. On the macro level, factors like Federal Reserve policy expectations, Bitcoin spot ETF capital flows, and overseas regulatory developments are influencing short-term sentiment swings. But if you only focus on emotions, you'll miss the underlying logical framework.

There are many hotspots in the crypto market today, but the price reaction has been somewhat lukewarm. The Federal Reserve has been active frequently. As expected, the rate cuts in 2026 could reach around 150 basis points, and recent officials have been actively preparing for further rate cuts. Trump is also reportedly set to announce a new Federal Reserve Chair candidate this month, with policy expectations continuing to rise. In theory, this should be favorable for risk assets, but the current market seems not to have reacted yet. Good news comes from the institutional side. JPMorgan's JPM Coin has recently expanded to the Canton network to support on-chain settlement for institutions, marking the second public chain deployment after Base. It appears that institutions are accelerating the transfer of tokenized assets, which is a trend worth watching. There are also major events on the project side. The bug bounty platform Immunefi announced that their native token $IMU will be launched on January 22, likely attracting a lot of attention. However, there are negatives as well. The pardon issue of a well-known exchange founder has been brought up again recently. The current US President has clearly stated in media interviews that he will not consider it, effectively ending that idea. The related token has no short-term rally expectations. More painfully, $ZEC—the core development team resigned en masse due to serious disagreements with the governance foundation and even planned to establish an independent project. The project's direction is now uncertain, and the token price has dropped sharply, with a decline of 20% already. There is a proposal regarding $OP that is worth paying attention to. The Optimism Foundation proposes to use 50% of the revenue from Superchain to buy back OP tokens. The voting is scheduled for January 22, and if approved, the buyback will start in February, which could support the token price. Looking at Bitcoin's trend, it’s a bit frustrating. Yesterday, it directly broke below 90,000, and this morning, it rebounded to 91,000 but couldn't hold. Although there are many positive news in the market, the price just can't rise, and sentiment has clearly become more cautious. If it cannot stay above 94,000 on the 4-hour chart, the short-term trend is basically hopeless. Tonight’s non-farm payroll data may also cause turbulence, increasing volatility. The most prudent approach now is to watch more and act less, mainly observing.

There are quite a few highlights in today's options market. On the BTC side, 21,000 options are about to expire, with a put-call ratio of 1.07. The main pain point is around $90,000, involving a notional value of up to $1.9 billion. Turning to ETH, 126,000 options are pending settlement, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.88. The pain point price is at $3,100, with a notional value of $3.9 billion. From a volatility perspective, BTC's implied volatility remains roughly at Christmas Eve levels, with little fluctuation. However, the situation is different for ETH, where implied volatility has noticeably declined. This indicates that the market's expectation for short-term sharp price swings is decreasing, and traders may be waiting for clearer directional signals.