#我的2026第一条帖 Today marks my 568th day of posting updates without a single break. Every post is prepared with care, not just rushed. [微笑] If you think I am a serious person, you can follow me, and I hope the daily content can help you. The world is vast, and I am small. Click follow to make it easier to find me. [微笑][微笑] Today, let's talk about how to choose altcoins and when is the best time to buy them. Currently, altcoins are showing a good performance, and the market is cooperating well. Altcoins have indeed started a small trend. Many people love trading altcoins because of the high volatility and excitement. Today, I will specifically clarify two questions: at what stage should you buy? What kind of altcoins should you buy? First, what kind of altcoins are worth buying? I think they should meet the following conditions: 1️⃣ Highly synchronized with Bitcoin's trend, such as ETH, SOL, XRP—absolutely avoid those with independent price movements. Because you can roughly judge where the altcoin is in its trend by observing BTC's trend. 2️⃣ Have a large market cap, real-world application, and positive revenue. Projects like small tokens, earning thousands or hundreds of dollars on-chain daily, or even just tens of dollars, are essentially just living off continuous coin selling. Pumping the market has costs, but unlimited coin issuance at zero cost. 3️⃣ Have high trading volume. Some coins only have tens of thousands of dollars in daily trading volume, which is likely generated by bots. Such coins tend to spiral down to zero eventually. 4️⃣ Most importantly: avoid coins that are heavily promoted, aggressively marketed, or hyped by influencers. Only coins that meet all four criteria above are worth your close attention. When is the right time to buy? To make it simple, let's use wave theory: The first wave of Bitcoin's rise, called Wave A, is not the time to buy altcoins. You should wait until Bitcoin enters Wave B or a Wave 2 correction before considering entering the market. Most altcoins only start to trend after Bitcoin enters its main upward wave. Before that, they mostly drift slowly downward, which can be very frustrating.

Crypto Daily Report 01.07: Institutional Capital Flows Resume, Retail Scenario Adoption and Technical Bottom Signals Emerge 1. Continuous Institutional Capital Inflows and Long-term Market Outlook Significant capital inflows into Bitcoin and mainstream crypto ETFs have recently occurred, driven by renewed institutional demand and improved market risk appetite. Meanwhile, Wall Street's influence on the crypto market has intensified, potentially altering the previous "parabolic" rally. Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $700 million in a single day, with Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and other ETFs rising in tandem, reflecting a resurgence of institutional confidence in cryptocurrencies. ProCap Chairman analyzed that Wall Street is integrating Bitcoin into traditional financial systems; early holders are exiting, and while a high compound annual growth rate of over 80% may not recur in the next decade, there is still potential to outperform stock indices. 2. Progress in Retail and Consumer Scenario Applications Walmart has launched Bitcoin and Ethereum trading features through its OnePay app, marking a tangible step in integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream retail and consumer scenarios. Walmart allows consumers to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum via OnePay, promoting the use of cryptocurrencies in daily retail activities and accelerating digital asset liquidity and user habit formation. This move reflects traditional large enterprises' integration of crypto technology, further blurring the boundaries between traditional finance and the crypto economy. 3. Technical Indicators and Price Trend Analysis The Bitcoin short-term holder profit/loss ratio indicator shows signals of a historical bear market bottom. The current ratio has rebounded, indicating potential for significant upside. Historical data shows that when the profit-to-loss supply ratio of short-term holders drops to around 0.013, it often marks a bear market bottom (as in 2011, 2015, 2018, 2022). The current ratio has risen from a November low of 0.013 to 0.45. Historical patterns suggest that when this ratio approaches 1, Bitcoin prices tend to enter a sustained upward phase, leaving room for further expansion. 4. Market Volatility and Asset Correlation Performance Cryptocurrency prices have experienced a correction, showing correlation with traditional assets like US stocks and gold, with the market exhibiting a mix of risk-on and risk-off sentiments. Bitcoin has fallen from $95,000 to $92,500, down 1.3% in the past 24 hours, with XRP, Solana, and others also retracing. Meanwhile, US stocks have seen slight gains, gold has broken through $4,500, and silver surged 5%, indicating some correlation between crypto and traditional assets, with overall market dynamics influenced by multiple asset classes. 5. Miner Behavior and Capital Allocation Adjustments Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms sold Bitcoin to fund AI data center transformation, reflecting diversified use of mining proceeds. Riot sold 2,201 BTC in November 2025, raising approximately $200 million to support AI data center development. This move demonstrates miners' strategic adjustments amid market volatility, shifting from pure holding to investing in non-mining businesses to meet industry transformation needs. 6. Geopolitical and Market Rumor Impacts Rumors about Venezuela hiding Bitcoin reserves have sparked market discussion. Authorities warn to beware of false information, as short-term sentiment has been disturbed. Market rumors suggest the Venezuelan government may be hiding around $60 billion worth of Bitcoin reserves, which, if released into the market, could impact prices. QCP warns to remain cautious of unverified information. Although unconfirmed, the strategic significance of Bitcoin and potential supply shocks continue to influence short-term market sentiment.

#以太坊大户持仓变化 $BTC $ETH $XRP 💥JPMorgan warns: Commodities to Experience Major Divergence in 2026, Market Reshaping Underway 2026 will be very different. The era of simultaneous rises in commodities has ended, replaced by fundamental divergence—this is a signal of a reshuffling in the global resource pricing system. Gold has become a hot favorite. The $5055 per ounce level is not a pipe dream; central banks are continuously buying, with China purchasing for 13 consecutive months, increasing global reserves by over 700 tons. Why? The credibility of the US dollar is being diluted, geopolitical risks are normalized, and gold is the only reserve asset without "counterparty risk." This is not short-term speculation but a 5-10 year capital migration. What about the industrial sector? Copper has become a darling of new energy. $12,000 per ton may not be the ceiling, as AI, grid upgrades, and energy storage systems are all疯狂吸铜. But there's a devil in the details: new mines take 10 years to bring online, supply is naturally limited, and the bottom keeps rising. Aluminum may surge in the short term but faces long-term pressure; zinc and crude oil are in a miserable state, trapped in an oversupply quagmire. Brent crude could even fall to $58. So, in this wave, the market will only reward those who see the trend clearly. Is your judgment accurate?