EUA: O PPI de março ficou abaixo do esperado, mas "a alta anual de 4,0% atingiu o maior nível em mais de três anos", com o aumento explosivo de energia sendo o principal culpado pela inflação

EUA Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released today (14th) the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March 2026. Although the overall PPI monthly growth rate of 0.5% unexpectedly fell below market expectations of 1.1%, driven by a surge in energy prices, the annual growth rate soared past 4.0%, reaching the highest level since February 2023.
(Background: Federal Reserve spokesperson: The US economy is closest to achieving a “soft landing” in history, but no one dares to unbuckle their seatbelt)
(Additional context: Inflation resurgence! US March CPI monthly increase of 0.9% hits a two-year high, Fed’s Dalian reassures the market: if oil prices fall back, rate cuts are still possible)

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• Monthly growth rate below expectations, but annual increase breaks 4% threshold
• Energy commodities as the main driver, service sector prices “zero growth”
• Influencing Fed rate cut nerves, production costs may transmit to CPI

The “stickiness” of US inflation is once again evident on the production side. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the latest March 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) data on April 14, showing a “monthly slowdown, annual surge” complex situation, indicating that although short-term price increase momentum has slightly slowed, the underlying cost push remains strong.

Monthly growth rate below expectations, but annual increase breaks 4% threshold

According to the latest report from BLS, the US production-side price performance in March is as follows:

• Final demand PPI monthly change (MoM): increased +0.5%. While continuing the growth trend, it is significantly lower than the previous value (February’s +0.7%) and far below the market forecast of +1.1%.
• Final demand PPI annual change (YoY): surged to +4.0% (previously +3.4%), not only a consecutive acceleration but also the largest 12-month increase since February 2023.
• Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services): performed relatively mildly, with a monthly increase of +0.2%, and an annual rate of +3.6%.

Energy commodities as the main driver, service sector prices “zero growth”

A deeper analysis of this data structure shows that the inflation pressure in March was extremely uneven. The main culprit driving the overall PPI increase was “final demand goods”, with a single-month rise of +1.6%. Officially, this surge in commodity prices is largely attributed to energy-related products (especially diesel, gasoline, etc.), which aligns with the recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing international oil prices higher.

Compared to the hot demand for goods, “final demand services” prices in March remained flat (0%), providing some buffer to the overall data and confirming that core inflation pressures are currently in a relatively controlled and moderate state.

Influencing Fed rate cut nerves, production costs may transmit to CPI

PPI is often seen as a leading indicator of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Although stable service sector prices give the market some relief, if energy prices remain high, these increased costs of goods will eventually be passed on to end consumers.

US inflation, affected by geopolitical disruptions, appears rigid, undoubtedly making the Federal Reserve (Fed) more cautious when considering future rate cuts. The market will closely watch the upcoming April data to see if this energy shock will evolve into broader, long-term inflation.