XRP Price Analysis: 65% Drawdown Risk as Monthly Trend Ribbon Faces Critical Test

⬤ XRP is sitting right at a make-or-break technical level on its monthly chart, and history suggests this isn’t a spot to take lightly. The monthly trend ribbon has acted as a clear dividing line between bullish runs and brutal bearish phases in the past.

⬤ The pattern is pretty straightforward when you look at the charts. Back in 2018, XRP dropped below this ribbon and then got crushed—losing about 65 percent of its value in a sustained downturn. Fast forward to 2022, and the same thing happened. XRP fell below the ribbon again and dropped roughly 54 percent. Both times, crossing below this level wasn’t just a quick dip. It marked the beginning of serious downward momentum that lasted for months.

Previous losses of this indicator preceded deep bearish phases for the asset, according to the analysis, highlighting just how significant this technical boundary has been historically.

⬤ The trend ribbon basically works as a momentum filter for long-term price action. When XRP trades above it, the asset has historically stayed in bullish territory. When it slips below, momentum flips negative and things tend to get ugly. Right now, XRP is balanced right on that line, making the next few weeks absolutely critical.

⬤ What makes this moment important is how reliably XRP has followed this pattern before. If the asset loses the monthly ribbon again, we could be looking at another extended bearish cycle similar to what happened in 2018 and 2022. On the flip side, if XRP manages to hold above this level, it would suggest the structure is still intact and the bulls might have enough strength to keep things afloat. Either way, the upcoming monthly closes are going to matter a lot.