JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could reach $170,000 next year; in the short term, closely watch MicroStrategy's mNAV 1 red line.

JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could surge to $170,000 within a year, but warns that if Strategy loses its mNAV or is removed from the MSCI index, it could impact short-term gains.

(Previous context: BlackRock CEO publicly admits mistake: Bitcoin is not just for crime, it is a highly volatile “fear asset.”) (Background: Crypto ETF funds see rapid outflows—can issuers like BlackRock still profit?)

Bitcoin (Bitcoin) surged past $94,000 yesterday and is currently fluctuating around $92,000, with neither bulls nor bears clearly dominating. However, JPMorgan recently released a report raising its 6- to 12-month Bitcoin target price to $170,000, predicting an upside of over 80% from current levels.

Analysts at the firm believe that macro hedging demand will ultimately drive prices higher, but caution that short-term momentum depends on the liquidity of major holders.

Strategy’s financial pressure is a variable

JPMorgan’s report specifically highlights the financial condition of MicroStrategy (Strategy) as a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s short-term performance. Analysts calculate Strategy’s current mNAV at about 1.1, just above the 1.0 warning threshold. If it falls below that level, it means the company’s market cap is less than the value of its Bitcoin holdings, potentially prompting creditors or investors to demand cash back, forcing the company to sell holdings and possibly triggering a chain reaction of selling in the market.

To maintain its HODL stance, Strategy has already raised about $1.44 billion in cash through share sales. The company claims this will cover interest and dividends for the next two years, and it has extended debt maturities through perpetual preferred shares and convertible bonds.

However, its 2025 profit forecast has been sharply revised from $24 billion to a loss of $5.5 billion to a profit of $6.3 billion, and there is a risk it could be removed from the MSCI index, further suppressing its share price and worsening mNAV. (MSCI will decide in January next year whether to exclude companies that invest 50% or more of their assets in digital assets from its indexes.)

Further reading: Michael Saylor responds to “MicroStrategy may be removed from MSCI index”: Our Bitcoin business is unique, index classification cannot define us

Top 10 tokens also fluctuate

Other top ten tokens are also following Bitcoin’s trend. Ethereum fell from $3,200, and the biggest drop in the past 24 hours was XRP, now at $2.1.

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