Analysis: Although there has been progress in cryptocurrency regulation, it still faces structural risks.

PANews December 18 News, Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzes that the Federal Reserve is signaling caution, with interest rate paths becoming more gradual. Market confidence and caution are intertwined at year-end. The FOMC’s “hawkish rate cuts” aim to stabilize employment and control inflation, with policy depending on data. The dot plot indicates the median interest rate at the next meeting will be between 3.25% and 3.5%. The 2026 interest rate path is even more gradual, and the market expects approximately 2.3 rate cuts. Non-farm payroll data remains unchanged, with CPI becoming a short-term key indicator. The Fed’s bond purchases help ease liquidity tensions. Additionally, the stock market and artificial intelligence remain key factors influencing macro trends. If income cannot match investments, risks are not limited to a correction in the AI sector but could also trigger a broader reset of stock market valuations. Given the central role of AI themes in this year’s market performance, it is undoubtedly a key variable for 2026.

Furthermore, cryptocurrencies are still affected by the complex macroeconomic environment. Besides the lack of short-term catalysts, new structural risks have emerged. MSCI is reassessing the eligibility of digital asset financial companies for index inclusion; companies holding more than 50% in cryptocurrencies may be excluded. Strategy has submitted mitigation plans, but clarity is expected by mid-January, with implementation possibly in February. However, there are signs of long-term progress. The regulatory environment is gradually shifting in a more favorable direction. Japan has enacted revised legislation to establish clearer rules for digital assets, enhancing their institutional legitimacy. Although Japan’s regulation of digital assets remains conservative, adopting a securities-like regulatory approach, this could help attract more institutional participation in the long run. Currently, the market remains stable, but the balance between risk resistance and vulnerability appears more delicate than it seems.