VanEck Flags Miner Capitulation as Bitcoin Hashrate Drops

• Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% in 30 days, a pattern that historically preceded price gains within 90 days, per VanEck.

• Miner profitability weakened as breakeven power costs fell and 1.3 GW of capacity reportedly shut down in China.

• Despite price declines, corporate treasuries added 42,000 BTC while long-term holders largely stayed put.

VanEck said a recent drop in Bitcoin mining activity could point to a near-term price bottom. The firm shared the findings in a report released in mid-December 2025, based on global Bitcoin network data. The analysis followed a month of price declines, rising volatility and notable shifts among miners, holders and institutional buyers.

Hashrate Decline and Miner Economics

According to VanEck, Bitcoin’s network hashrate fell 4% over the past 30 days as of December 15. This marked the steepest monthly decline since April 2024. Historically, VanEck noted that similar declines preceded positive price performance.

Since 2014, Bitcoin rose within 90 days 65% of the time following 30-day hashrate drops. However, mining profitability weakened sharply. The breakeven electricity cost for S19 XP miners fell from $0.12 in December 2024 to $0.077 by mid-December 2025.

At the same time, network hashing power hit a record in early November before retreating. VanEck also cited reports of 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity shutting down in China’s Xinjiang region.

Market Activity and Price Conditions

During the same period, Bitcoin fell 9% over 30 days. Volatility exceeded 45%, reaching the highest level since April 2025. Bitcoin traded near $80,700 on November 22, pushing the 30-day RSI to around 32.

Notably, speculative demand weakened. Perpetual futures basis rates dropped to 5% annualized, below the yearly average of 7.4%. On-chain metrics also softened. Daily transaction fees declined 14% month over month, while new addresses slipped 1%.

Holder Behavior and Treasury Accumulation

Despite weaker prices, corporate treasuries increased exposure. Digital Asset Treasuries added 42,000 BTC from mid-November to mid-December. This brought total holdings to 1.09 million BTC, the largest increase since July 2025. Strategy accounted for 29,400 BTC of those purchases.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETP holdings fell 120 basis points to 1.308 million BTC. On-chain data showed selling among medium-term holders. Balances for 1–5 year cohorts declined sharply. In contrast, holders with coins older than five years showed minimal change, according to VanEck.