RAIN Token skyrocketed by 20,000%! Only 5% away from the historical high, can it break through this week?

RAIN Token has experienced a big pump of 125% in the past 30 days, with a year-to-date cumulative increase of 20,000%. The current price is only 5% lower than its historical high, making it a dark horse in Arbitrum's market capitalization, with a circulating market capitalization exceeding 2.7 billion USD. The surge is attributed to Enlivex Therapeutics announcing a private sale for 212 million USD to establish the world's first corporate digital asset repository centered around RAIN Token.

$212 million enterprise fund ignites speculative frenzy

The big pump of RAIN is not due to technical breakthroughs or user growth of the protocol itself, but rather a speculative frenzy triggered by institutional endorsements. In late November 2025, Nasdaq-listed biotech company Enlivex Therapeutics announced a $212 million private sale to establish the world's first corporate digital asset vault centered around the RAIN Token. This initiative, coupled with the appointment of former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to the board, led to a significant surge in the price of the Token in a short period.

Why would a biotechnology company establish a cryptocurrency asset pool? Enlivex's strategy is similar to MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, but it chose a Token with a relatively small market capitalization and poor liquidity. This choice is controversial in itself, as RAIN's market depth cannot support a large-scale purchase of 212 million USD without causing severe price fluctuations. This is also the direct reason for the big pump of RAIN—institutional buying created a huge price impact in the weak liquidity.

Matteo Renzi's involvement adds a political aura to this speculation. The former Italian Prime Minister has extensive connections in European political circles, and his participation is interpreted by the market as a potential signal that RAIN may receive support from European regulatory bodies. However, this interpretation is more of a market wishful thinking, as Renzi himself has not made any public endorsement of RAIN's technology or business model.

RAIN Protocol is expected to launch around 2023 to 2024, and it once dropped nearly 99%, indicating extremely low early market acceptance. Such a trend of rising from near zero to a big pump of 20,000% is not uncommon in cryptocurrency history, but it often comes with extremely high risks. Past similar cases include tokens like Luna and FTT, which ultimately crashed after a big pump, causing catastrophic losses for investors.

The absurdity of a test product supporting a valuation of 2.7 billion dollars

According to official website news, RAIN is still in the testing phase, which strongly contrasts with its circulating market capitalization of $2.7 billion. The trading volume is around $10 million, the total value locked (TVL) is only $1.6 million, and the total number of users is close to 30,000. Compared to similar prediction market platforms, these figures are extremely weak.

Using Polymarket as a reference, the platform handled billions of dollars in trading volume during the 2024 U.S. election period, with a TVL that once exceeded 200 million USD and user numbers reaching millions. In contrast, there exists a three-order-of-magnitude gap between RAIN's fundamental data and its valuation. This means that the market's valuation of RAIN is not based on current performance, but rather on an extremely optimistic expectation of future potential.

This valuation logic is not without precedent. Kalshi currently has a valuation of 11 billion dollars, far exceeding the level supported by its actual revenue and user scale. However, Kalshi at least has regulatory approval from the U.S. CFTC, making it the first legal prediction market platform in the United States, and this regulatory endorsement has substantial value. In contrast, RAIN lacks a clear regulatory status, and its compliance remains uncertain.

A TVL of 1.6 million USD indicates that the actual locked user funds in the protocol are minimal. In the DeFi space, TVL is often seen as a key indicator of the protocol's health and user trust. Such a low TVL in proportion to a market capitalization of 2.7 billion USD (approximately 1:1687) is extremely unusual, far exceeding the reasonable range for most DeFi protocols. This disconnect suggests that the price of RAIN reflects more of speculative enthusiasm rather than fundamental value.

The Three Major Contradictions of RAIN Valuation and Fundamentals

1. Market capitalization and trading volume are severely disconnected

· 2.7 billion market capitalization vs 10 million monthly trading volume

· The market capitalization/trading volume ratio far exceeds the industry average level.

· Suggests that the price is driven more by speculation than by actual use.

2. TVL and valuation are extremely unbalanced

· 1.6 million USD TVL supports 2.7 billion market capitalization (ratio 1:1687)

· Compared to Polymarket: 200 million TVL supports an estimated valuation of about 5 billion (ratio 1:25)

· Shows a serious divergence between users' trust in the protocol and market valuation.

3. Obtained sky-high valuation during the testing phase

· The product has reached unicorn valuation even before its official release.

· A user base of 30,000 cannot support long-term value.

· Highly dependent on institutional buying rather than organic growth

Technical critical point: Breakthrough at $0.01 or retracement to $0.06

(Source: Trading View)

The chart shows that RAIN has exhibited a clear accumulation-explosion pattern over the past month: first entering a sideways accumulation phase, followed by a significant pump in a short period of time. If this pattern repeats, considering the current price's fluctuation range at these levels, the next round of rising could happen at any time. Breaking through the psychological resistance level of $0.01 will be the first step, confirming the bullish pattern and potentially initiating a new round of price discovery.

However, the price may also fluctuate in the opposite direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to overbought levels, indicating that buying momentum may have been exhausted in the short term. In this case, the price may retreat to around $0.06, which is a key support level from the previous accumulation phase. This pullback would provide a more favorable risk-reward entry opportunity, provided that investors can withstand the risk of a potential further decline.

Being just 5% away from the historical peak is both an opportunity and a trap. From a technical analysis perspective, a breakthrough of the historical peak usually triggers a new wave of FOMO (fear of missing out) buying, pushing prices into uncharted territory. However, from a risk management standpoint, chasing prices near the historical peak means that the downside potential is much greater than the upside potential, and if a reversal occurs, it could lead to significant losses.

For investors considering participating in RAIN trading, it must be recognized that this is purely a speculative game. The fundamentals of the protocol cannot support the current valuation, and the price is driven entirely by market sentiment and institutional buying. Once Enlivex completes its accumulation or market sentiment reverses, RAIN could experience a collapse comparable to its big pump speed.