SHIB holders are experiencing the toughest times in 2025, with the token price plummeting 66% year-on-year. Even more concerning is the first occurrence of a weekly death cross for SHIB, where the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term average, which is a classic bearish signal. After the key support level of 0.00000135 USD was breached, analysts assert that unless SHIB regains that support level, the long positions are dead.
The first ever weekly death cross catastrophic signal in history
(Source: Trading View)
SHIB completed the first weekly death cross in history in 2025, which is one of the most important bearish signals in technical analysis. The death cross refers to the short-term moving average (usually the 50-week MA) crossing below the long-term moving average (usually the 200-week MA), indicating a shift in the long-term trend from upward to downward. A weekly death cross is more lethal than a daily one because it reflects a trend reversal over months or even years.
Historical data shows that mainstream cryptocurrencies typically experience an average decline of 30-50% after a weekly death cross, and bear markets usually last more than 6 months. For SHIB, a further decline of 30% from the current $0.00000706 would mean the price will test the $0.000005 level. If the decline reaches 50%, it would touch $0.0000035, which would completely destroy all technical structures established since 2021.
What is even more worrying is that the bottom oscillation indicators show weakness, with the RSI and stochastic indicators hovering around lower ranges of 37 and 31 respectively, indicating a weakening momentum. Typically, an RSI below 30 is considered an oversold area, which could trigger a technical rebound, but the current reading of 37 shows that there is still room for decline. The low level of the stochastic indicator at 31 also shows that selling pressure is still dominating the market, and although it is theoretically close to being oversold, it has not yet triggered a clear buy signal.
The descending trendline since the peak in 2024 continues to exert resistance, with prices declining within this descending channel. Each rebound near the trendline has met with selling pressure, creating a vicious cycle of “the more it rebounds, the more it falls.” This technical structure indicates that, in the absence of significant catalysts, the path of least resistance is to continue falling.
0.00000135 USD death line breached, community faith collapsed
(Source: Trading View)
SHIB fell below the long-term support level of 0.00000135 USD, marking the most symbolic event in this crisis. This price level has remained valid since the beginning of 2023, representing the collective cost zone and psychological defense line of the ShibArmy. Cryptocurrency analyst Nebraskangooner asserted that unless SHIB regains this support level, it is “already dead.” This represents a critical threshold that may determine whether SHIB can achieve any meaningful recovery.
The price action after the support level was broken is even more frustrating. According to technical analysis logic, a key support level that has been broken often becomes resistance, meaning that $0.00000135 is now the ceiling for SHIB's rebound. In order to confirm a trend reversal, SHIB not only needs to return to that level but must also stabilize above that price for several days with increased trading volume to convince the market's long positions to regain control.
The confidence of the ShibArmy community is wavering. An elder member has sent a call to founder Shintaro Kusama on social media: “SHIB is going downhill, and we (as SHIB investors) are losing money. Please take some measures to stop the stock price from slowly sliding towards zero.” Such public questioning has been extremely rare in the past, indicating that anxiety within the community has reached a critical point.
The deterioration of community sentiment can create a self-reinforcing negative cycle. When loyal holders begin to doubt the project's prospects, it becomes even less likely for new investors to enter. The value of meme coins highly relies on community consensus, and once this consensus starts to crumble, the speed of price decline may accelerate. SHIB once called itself the “Dogecoin killer,” creating a myth of a thousandfold increase in 2021 with strong community cohesion, but this cohesion is rapidly fading.
Shinji Kusama has yet to make a public response to the community, and this silence has further intensified uncertainty. Investors are eager to see substantial positive news, such as a major upgrade to Shibarium, new burning mechanisms, or collaborations with mainstream companies, but the team's communication strategy appears to have failed to keep pace with market expectations.
Technical and fundamental dual collapse
Technical breakdown, weakening momentum indicators, and deteriorating market sentiment have combined to pose severe challenges for SHIB holders. The completion of the weekly death cross, along with the break below multi-year support levels, indicates that without significant fundamental catalysts, the bearish structure may persist until 2026.
To reverse this trend, SHIB needs to reclaim the broken support level, ideally with significant changes in trading volume and momentum indicators. However, given the current conditions, the probability of such a reversal is extremely low. Although Shibarium's Layer-2 expansion has made technical progress, it has not translated into token demand. The burn mechanism continues to operate, but the daily destruction amount is negligible compared to the circulating supply of 589 trillion coins, limiting its impact on price.
Three Major Bearish Signal Confirming Bear Market
Weekly Death Cross: The 50-week EMA crosses down through the 200-week EMA, indicating a complete reversal of the long-term trend. Historically, this signal has averaged a further fall of 30-50%.
Key support lost: The long-standing defense line of 0.00000135 USD has been breached and has now turned into a resistance level, making rebounds much more difficult.
Momentum indicators are weak: RSI 37 and stochastic indicator 31 are close to oversold but have not triggered a rebound, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant.
2026 Survival Path and Desperate Situation
Based on the current technical structure, SHIB faces two completely different paths. In a desperate scenario, if the 0.00000135 USD support level cannot be reclaimed, the next support level is at 0.000005 USD, followed by 0.0000035 USD. If the latter is reached, it means a further fall of 50% from the current price, which would completely destroy the morale of the SHIB community and could trigger panic selling.
The survival path requires multiple conditions to be met simultaneously: re-establishing above 0.00000135 USD and stabilizing for over a week, RSI breaking above 50 entering the long positions zone, Shibarium active address count achieving tenfold growth, and Kusama Shinji launching a revolutionary burning mechanism or application scenarios. Only when these conditions are fulfilled one by one, will SHIB have the possibility to return above 0.00002 USD in 2026.
Prior to this, traders remained cautious as fear sentiment continued to dominate the market mood for the first batch of internet Meme coins of 2021. For investors still holding SHIB, it is necessary to set strict stop-loss levels, with a suggestion to liquidate below 0.000006 USD to avoid further losses. For onlookers, unless clear trend reversal signals are seen, it is not recommended to catch falling knives.
