Massive Christmas unlock incoming, is Pi Network's price facing a new round of downside risk?

Pi Network prices have recently been under continuous pressure. Against the backdrop of weakening technical signals, a key token unlock event is approaching. According to on-chain data, approximately 8.7 million PI tokens will be unlocked on December 25th, with a current value of about $1.76 million. This event is viewed by the market as a significant short-term risk factor that could trigger selling.

Looking back at the market trend, Pi Network reached a high of $0.279 in November but then quickly retreated, with a total decline of about 31% last week, dropping to a low of $0.192. Despite some buy-the-dip activity over the weekend, the price briefly rebounded to $0.214, but overall demand remains weak. Before macroeconomic data is released, market sentiment is cautious, and PI has fallen again to around $0.203.

PiScan data shows that this unlock is the largest in December. It is estimated that about 54.7 million PI tokens will enter circulation throughout December, with a circulating market value exceeding $11 million. The large increase in supply will weaken the token’s scarcity. Without sufficient buying support, this often exerts ongoing downward pressure on Pi Network’s price, which is one of the key risks investors are most concerned about.

From a fundamental perspective, the Pi core team has recently announced several developments, including plans to strengthen DeFi infrastructure and promote the application of Pi Network in real-world scenarios. If these initiatives can effectively increase user activity and ecosystem usage, they may help offset the selling pressure caused by the token unlock in the short term. However, the market remains cautious.

In terms of technical analysis, the daily chart of Pi Network has formed a classic double-top pattern, with the top near $0.285. The neckline support is concentrated between $0.192 and $0.196. The super trend indicator has turned bearish, and the MACD is still below the zero line, indicating weak market momentum. If PI breaks below the neckline support, the price could further decline to around $0.153, a drop of approximately 24%. Conversely, if the neckline support holds, the price may see a phase of recovery.

Overall, under the combined influence of the Pi Network token unlock, technical pressure, and cautious market sentiment, the short-term volatility risk for PI remains high. Investors should closely monitor the market response after the unlock and key support levels.