Curve DAO Price Analysis: CRV Rebound Stalled at $0.38, Is it a Bottoming Opportunity or Will it Continue to Fall?

Curve DAO (CRV) has been in a continuous downtrend since August, with the overall trend leaning bearish. Previously, after the price broke below $0.37, the market widely expected a further decline to the long-term key support level at $0.243. However, CRV only dipped to a low of $0.331 before quickly rebounding to $0.385, rising approximately 16% in just over four days, sparking discussions about a “trend reversal.”

From a structural perspective, this rebound is more of a technical correction rather than a trend reversal signal. Earlier analysis by AMBCrypto on CRV indicated that it remains in a clear bear market pattern. This rally just filled the imbalance area on the 6-hour chart and also absorbed some short-term selling pressure. Despite prevailing market sentiment of capitulation and whale sell-offs, these factors did not prevent a short-term rebound.

However, from a medium- to long-term view, the downward trend of CRV has not changed. The OBV indicator shows little to no significant increase, indicating limited buying strength. The inflow of funds on daily or short cycles is insufficient to reverse the downward structure formed over months. Multiple moving averages remain aligned downward, exerting resistance on the price and reflecting that the overall market is still dominated by bears.

Key price levels show that $0.372 has been reaffirmed as an important resistance. Although the price briefly broke above this level, it was quickly pushed back down by bears, indicating strong selling pressure in this area. From the 1-hour chart, the rebound high is slightly above the previous H6 imbalance zone, and at one point, $0.372 was turned into support. However, this support was quickly lost, further weakening the possibility of an upward continuation.

Therefore, the probability of CRV continuing to push towards $0.40 or higher in the short term is relatively low. This rebound is more likely a liquidity grab to clear overly concentrated short positions rather than a trend reversal.

For traders, despite the recent rapid rebound of CRV, the overall trading approach should remain cautiously bearish. If the price cannot regain stability within the $0.372–$0.38 range, a fall back below $0.33 cannot be ruled out. This level is also an important reference point for short-term Fibonacci extension. Based on technical and market structure analysis, Curve DAO currently appears more as a phase of selling or waiting after a rebound rather than a clear medium- to long-term buying opportunity.