"Miner capitulation" is a bullish signal? VanEck: Bitcoin hash rate plummets, bullish momentum is building up

The asset management company VanEck’s latest report indicates that recent Bitcoin mining activity has significantly cooled down. Based on historical experience, this likely signals that Bitcoin is about to迎來 a bullish return.

In a research report released on Monday, VanEck mentioned that, looking back at market patterns since 2014, when the network Hashrate shows contraction, there is a 65% chance that the investment return over the next 90 days will be positive; conversely, when Hashrate continues to grow, the probability of positive returns is only 54%.

VanEck analysts pointed out that empirical data shows that “a decline in Hashrate may actually be a bullish signal for long-term holders,” describing it as a contrarian indicator often accompanied by “miner capitulation”—that is, when the price drops, costs rise, and profits are squeezed, weaker miners are forced to shut down and exit the market, or even sell Bitcoin to survive.

Historically, this kind of “massive cleansing” often marks the formation of a market bottom, followed by a strong rebound.

VanEck noted that the current market situation perfectly aligns with this trend. As of December 15, over the past month, Bitcoin’s total network Hashrate has decreased by about 4%, marking the largest single-month drop since April 2024. The report further states that the longer the Hashrate compression continues, the more vigorous the future rebound tends to be.

Along with the weakening price, the profitability of the mining industry is being ruthlessly squeezed. VanEck data shows that, for example, the “break-even electricity price” for the mid-range mainstream miner Antminer S19 XP has dropped significantly from $0.12 per kWh at the end of 2024 to about $0.077 per kWh in mid-December.

The “break-even electricity price” refers to the maximum electricity cost that miners can bear without incurring losses. A rapid decline indicates that mining profits are thinning, and only miners with lower electricity costs and better capital structures can continue to stay in the market.

As mining pressure increases, VanEck pointed out that long-term institutional buyers are gradually stepping in, especially “HODL companies,” which have accelerated their buying on dips over the past month.

According to the report, from mid-November to mid-December, crypto reserve companies bought approximately 42,000 Bitcoin, a monthly increase of about 4%, pushing the total holdings to around 1.09 million Bitcoin.

This is the largest single-month institutional accumulation since July to August 2025 (when they added over 128,000 Bitcoin in a single month).

Looking ahead, VanEck believes that crypto reserve companies will gradually reduce the issuance of common shares (which would dilute equity) and instead raise capital through preferred shares as the main funding source for Bitcoin purchases.

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