Trump Is Back – Yet Crypto Crashes Anyway: Is the Bull Run Dead?

Despite Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the cryptocurrency market is closing 2025 in the red, trading at roughly 20% of its peak levels from the Biden era. What was supposed to be a triumphant bull run fueled by pro-crypto rhetoric and regulatory tailwinds has instead turned into a year of disappointment and debate.

Key Takeaways

• Crypto ends 2025 sharply lower despite abundant liquidity, spot ETFs, and a crypto-friendly administration.
• Analysts are divided: Is the market fundamentally broken, or simply undergoing a painful structural shift?
• The classic retail-driven altcoin season appears dead—institutional crypto now dominates.

When Trump reclaimed the presidency, most in the crypto community expected a familiar script: supportive policies, institutional inflows, and explosive risk-on sentiment igniting a new supercycle.

Instead, the market is limping into 2026 at just a fraction of its Biden-era highs.

“The Crypto Market Is Broken” – A Growing Chorus

Crypto Banter host Ran Neuner pulled no punches in a recent rant: “It’s time to admit the crypto market is broken.”

He pointed to an unprecedented disconnect between fundamentals and price action. 2025 had “every ingredient for a bull market”:

• Ample global liquidity
• A pro-crypto U.S. government
• Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
• Aggressive corporate accumulation (e.g., Michael Saylor)
• Nation-state and sovereign wealth fund participation
• Traditional risk assets like stocks, gold, and silver hitting all-time highs

Yet, Neuner noted, “we’re ending 2025 lower—and only 20% of where we were under Biden.”

Traditional explanations—four-year cycles, trapped liquidity, or a delayed “IPO moment”—feel increasingly like excuses. For Neuner, only two paths remain:

• A hidden structural seller suppressing prices, or
• The setup for “the mother of all catch-up rallies” once equilibrium returns.

Not Everyone Agrees the Market Is Broken

Popular X commentator Gordon Gekko pushed back, arguing the pain is intentional and structural—not dysfunctional. “Nothing is broken; this is exactly what the market makers wanted. Sentiment is the worst in years; leveraged traders are getting wrecked. It’s not supposed to be easy—only the strong get rewarded.”

This divide highlights a profound evolution from past cycles. During Trump’s first term (2017–2020), crypto thrived in a regulatory vacuum: retail speculation reigned, leverage was unchecked, and reflexive price action drove valuations far beyond fundamentals.

Under Biden, the market institutionalized. Enforcement-heavy regulation curbed excess, while ETFs, custodians, and compliance frameworks reshaped capital flows.

Ironically, many of the most anticipated catalysts arrived during this stricter era:

• ETFs opened mainstream access—but primarily for Bitcoin.
• Institutions allocated—but often hedged and rebalanced mechanically.
• Liquidity existed—but flowed into TradFi wrappers rather than on-chain ecosystems.

The result: scale without reflexivity.

Bitcoin Holds, Altcoins Shatter in the New Regime

The structural shift has been brutal for altcoins. Analysts like Shanaka Anslem argue the unified “crypto market” no longer exists.

Instead, 2025 split into two distinct games:

• Institutional Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ETFs—lower volatility, longer horizons.
• Attention Crypto: Millions of tokens competing for fleeting liquidity, most collapsing within days.

Capital no longer rotates seamlessly from Bitcoin into alts—the classic “altseason” is gone. Flows go directly to their intended purpose.

The Altcoin Season Index (Blockchain Center) remains deeply suppressed, confirming the absence of broad rotation.

“…You now have one choice: Play institutional crypto with patience and macro awareness. Or play attention crypto with speed and infrastructure,” Anslem wrote.

Holding mid-cap alts for months betting on an impending altseason is, in his view, the worst strategy today.

“You’re not early to altseason. You’re waiting for a market structure that no longer exists.”

Commentators like Lisa Edwards and Quinten François echo this, noting that with over 11 million tokens launched in 2025, the idea of a widespread 2021-style alt rally feels obsolete.

A Post-Institutional Identity Crisis

Macro pressures continue to weigh on sentiment. Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin highlighted Bitcoin’s slide toward its 100-week moving average, reflecting renewed AI bubble fears, Fed leadership uncertainty, and year-end tax-loss harvesting.

“This is shaping up as one of the dullest year-ends in recent memory,” he told BeInCrypto, warning BTC could briefly dip below $80,000 if selling intensifies.

Whether crypto is truly “broken” or merely transforming remains an open question—one that only time and price action will answer.

What is clear: Trump-era expectations are colliding with Biden-era market structure, and the old playbook no longer applies.

The debate raging across trading desks—from retail forums to institutional research—points to either a brutal repricing or an explosive catch-up rally that could define crypto’s post-institutional future.