Is XRP at risk of crashing before 2026 begins? Three indicators show signs of trouble

XRP decreased approximately 1.6% in the past 24 hours. On the weekly chart, this coin continues to be among large-cap assets with weak performance, down nearly 16% compared to last month’s level. Most of the current price volatility is concentrated near the bottom of the descending triangle pattern — a structure that often signals trend continuation.

Although there is no confirmed breakout of the downtrend yet, three market signals are simultaneously emerging, prompting traders to exercise caution as they approach the end of 2025.

Consensus Between Retail Investors and Long-Term Holders

XRP remains trapped within the descending triangle pattern, trading sideways around the lower trendline. Although the price experienced slight increases from 12/18 to 12/27, the Money Flow Index (MFI) moved in the opposite direction, reflecting outflows of capital from the asset.

The MFI measures the inflow and outflow of money for XRP. The fact that this indicator is making lower lows while the price is rising indicates retail investors are continuously selling whenever the price recovers, rather than accumulating more.

This selling pressure makes it difficult for XRP to break above the upper trendline of the pattern.

Weak Participation of Retail Investors | Source: TradingView Concerns grow when considering the behavior of long-term holders.

According to data from HODL Waves — a visualization tool showing supply distribution by holding periods — the proportion of wallets holding XRP for 2–3 years has sharply decreased from 14.26% of the total supply on 11/26 to 5.66% on 12/26.

This group represents long-term believers, and their selling has weakened a key support level in the market. If retail investor weakness is normal, the simultaneous divestment by long-term holders is concerning.

Holders are Selling Off XRP | Source: Glassnode This creates a scenario where both short-term and long-term behaviors are heading in one direction: leaving XRP.

Capital Flows Indicate Diminishing Demand

When both retail and long-term investor confidence weaken, the next indicator to watch is capital flow — the third key factor.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator also does not show positive signals. CMF tracks buying and selling pressure based on volume and price movements. Currently, this indicator remains in negative territory for XRP and continues to decline along the support trendline.

Weak CMF for XRP | Source: TradingView In other words, despite the sideways price action, large capital inflows into XRP are drying up, and the market is trending toward supply exceeding demand. Until the CMF shows signs of recovery, the market loses an additional layer of potential support.

This is the main reason XRP’s price has yet to make a strong rebound.

Price Levels That Will Decide XRP’s Direction

Currently, XRP is stuck in the $1.81 to $1.90 range. The coin lost the $1.90 level on 12/22 and has not regained it since. Reclaiming the $1.90 level, then targeting $1.99, would be the first signal indicating renewed buying interest.

This move would also mark a breakout above the upper boundary of the triangle pattern, opening opportunities for the bulls.

However, the downside scenario appears more prominent at this moment.

If the $1.81 level is broken, XRP could fall out of the descending triangle pattern, confirming a downtrend. In that case, the price could continue sliding toward the $1.68 zone — where the pattern would be completely invalidated — and even down to $1.52 if selling pressure increases.

XRP Price Analysis | Source: TradingView Although nothing is certain yet, the market has not shown any reversal signals. As long as retail investors keep selling, long-term holders continue to distribute, and large capital flows have not returned, XRP’s price will need to struggle to maintain its current trading range.