CryptoQuant asserts "The bear market has arrived"! Bitcoin demand momentum has cooled off, possibly testing the $70,000 level again.

On-Chain Data Analysis Company CryptoQuant Issues Warning: Due to a clear weakening in Bitcoin demand momentum, cryptocurrencies may have entered a bear market, and the subsequent downside risks should not be overlooked. Recently, CryptoQuant released a report stating: “The growth in (Bitcoin) demand has significantly slowed, indicating that the market is entering a bear market. Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three waves of spot demand surges, driven respectively by the US spot ETF listing, the US presidential election, and Bitcoin reserve companies.” However, since early October 2025, this demand growth has fallen below the long-term trend line, indicating that the new buying interest in this cycle has largely been absorbed by the market, causing Bitcoin to lose key support levels. Based on the current weak trend, CryptoQuant believes that the downside risk for Bitcoin is gradually emerging. “$70,000” is the first important support zone. If the market cannot regain bullish momentum, a further decline to $56,000 cannot be ruled out. The report states: From historical experience, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom often aligns with the “Realized Price” (which reflects the average cost basis of all holders), currently around $56,000. If this level is truly tested, it would mean Bitcoin has fallen approximately 55% from its all-time high, potentially making it the bear market with the smallest retracement in history. The medium-term support level for Bitcoin is around $70,000. Regarding the timing concerns of the market, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno revealed: “A correction to $70,000 could occur within the next 3 to 6 months; as for the deeper drop to $56,000, if it happens, it might occur in the second half of 2026.” He further added that this bear market actually began in mid-November this year, following the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history on October 10. 3 Major Data Confirm: Capital is Withdrawing CryptoQuant listed three key data points supporting the view that “the bear market has already arrived”: 1. ETF Turning into Net Seller: In Q4 2025, US Bitcoin spot ETFs shifted to a “net outflow” status, reducing holdings by approximately 24,000 Bitcoins, contrasting sharply with the strong buying activity of the same period last year. 2. Large Holders Shrinking: Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins (including ETFs and institutions) are growing at a rate below trend lines, a sign of demand deterioration similar to late 2021, just before the 2022 major bear market. 3. Derivatives Cooling Down: The funding rates of perpetual contracts (calculated as a 365-day moving average) have fallen to the lowest levels since December 2023. A decline in funding rates usually indicates reduced willingness among longs to maintain leverage, a typical bear market feature. Additionally, the price has broken below the 365-day moving average, which is often regarded as the bull-bear dividing line in technical analysis. CryptoQuant also presented a provocative view: “The core engine driving Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is ‘demand cycles,’ not ‘halving events.’” When demand peaks and begins to decline, regardless of supply-side dynamics, a bear market often ensues. It is worth noting that CryptoQuant’s bearish tone sharply contrasts with recent views from major Wall Street firms, and the market remains highly contested between bulls and bears: