Is the Bitcoin surge a "phantom"? Spot trading volume drops to a 2-year low, liquidity faces a cold snap

Since entering 2026, the cryptocurrency market has been climbing steadily, but behind the prosperity, it may still be “walking on thin ice.” According to the well-known on-chain analysis firm Glassnode, although the market appears lively, liquidity conditions seem to be very weak, with spot trading volume dropping to a new low in over 2 years.

Glassnode data shows that despite Bitcoin’s price continuing to rise, the total spot trading volume of Bitcoin and competing coins has fallen to the lowest point since November 2023. This typical “price rise with declining volume” divergence usually indicates a decrease in market participation and weak buying pressure, with the rally lacking solid support.

The so-called “spot trading volume” measures the actual buying and selling activity of real money within exchanges and is a key indicator of the market’s true heat. In a healthy traditional bull market, rising prices should be accompanied by increased trading volume, representing continuous inflows of new funds for turnover and profit-taking selling pressure. However, the current situation is “rising with no volume.” This means less capital is needed to push prices higher, but it also indicates that even a small amount of selling pressure could cause the price to plummet instantly. In fact, since the large-scale liquidation wave in the cryptocurrency market last October, liquidity on centralized exchanges has not fully “recovered,” and order book depth remains below pre-crash levels. Looking back at the “bloodbath” last October, about $19 billion of highly leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within a few hours, not only eliminating over-leveraged speculators but also profoundly changing the market’s liquidity structure. This prompted market makers and liquidity providers to withdraw and wait on the sidelines, leading to a continuous shrinkage of idle liquidity and the loss of buffers to absorb large orders. In this environment, any large transaction could trigger more severe slippage and price volatility than before. As of press time, Bitcoin’s price is approximately $93,600, up more than 7.5% since January 1.