Entering 2026, global market risk appetite has significantly improved, with US stocks quickly recovering from last December’s declines. The macroeconomic sentiment improvement has also driven the crypto market to re-enter a critical crossroads. Amid the debate of “holding on or exiting early,” on-chain data for Ethereum (ETH) shows clear signals leaning towards a bullish trend.
The latest data indicates that the number of Ethereum validators in the exit queue has fallen to approximately 15,000, a sharp decline from the peak of 2.6 million in mid-September 2025, a decrease of over 99%. This change suggests that during previous price corrections and market volatility, Ethereum stakers did not panic and exit en masse; instead, they chose to continue locking their assets, demonstrating high confidence in ETH’s medium- to long-term prospects.
Notably, although ETH has retraced about 30% from its Q4 high of around $4,200 and has performed slightly weaker than Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of the year, validator behavior has not wavered with the price decline. Meanwhile, the Ethereum staking annual percentage rate (APR) has decreased from above 3% to approximately 2.54%. Despite the reduced incentives, there has been no wave of exits, further highlighting the robustness of the HODL sentiment.
From a historical perspective, the continuous contraction of the validator exit queue often occurs just before a bull market begins. In Q1 2024, Ethereum exhibited a similar pattern, followed by a price increase of over 60% in that quarter. Against this backdrop, the market is beginning to reassess the possibility of ETH entering an upward cycle in Q1 2026.
On-chain fundamentals also support this outlook. Data shows that Ethereum’s stablecoin trading volume in Q4 surpassed $8 trillion, setting a new record; daily transaction counts exceeded 2 million, with network activity continuously rising. This indicates that Ethereum is not solely driven by sentiment but is operating steadily based on genuine usage demand and liquidity.
Overall, the sharp decline in validator exits, increased staking commitments, and rising network activity are collectively laying a solid foundation for ETH’s price. As market liquidity from the bears gradually accumulates, expectations for ETH to enter a new price discovery phase by the end of this quarter are heating up. Whether Ethereum’s bull market will repeat has become one of the most closely watched variables in the current market.
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