Dormant Polymarket Trader With a Strong Record on Israel–Iran Strike Bets Returns to Wager on War Again

A long-dormant Polymarket trader has resurfaced with a series of wagers tied to the possibility of an Israeli military strike on Iran.

The return has attracted attention not only because of the sensitive geopolitical context, but also due to the trader’s past performance. Consequently, those factors have reignited debate over whether the activity represents informed positioning or speculative betting during an unusually volatile period.

Track Record That Draws Attention

According to Polymarket data, the trader has amassed more than $155,000 in total profits. Remarkably, every previous wager linked to Israel has yielded a profit.

That consistency set the account apart. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain flagged the renewed activity, highlighting the trader’s historical accuracy and the timing of the bets.

The trader committed a total of $8,198 to Polymarket contracts, anticipating potential Israeli military action against Iran. Moreover, the investments were distributed across two separate future deadlines.

What the Markets Are Pricing In

One contract tracks whether a strike occurs by January 31, 2026, while a second extends the window to March 31, 2026.

As of the latest data, Polymarket assigns a 25% probability to the January outcome. That figure rises to 37% for March. These probabilities help explain why the wagers have drawn broader interest beyond the platform itself.

Rising Tensions Provide the Backdrop

The bets were placed amid escalating strain across the Middle East. Specifically, multiple media reports have pointed to a sharp depreciation of Iran’s currency against the US dollar, intensifying economic pressure inside the country.

That pressure has fueled protests across Iran since late December, with demonstrations persisting and expanding in recent days. The unrest has added further context to the market activity and amplified attention to potential regional flashpoints.

Political Reactions From Both Sides

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly voiced his support for the protests, according to The Times of Israel. He also characterized the demonstrations as steadily gaining momentum.

Iranian authorities, in turn, accused Israel of attempting to undermine national unity, rejecting the notion that the unrest is purely domestic. Consequently, the exchange has further heightened already fragile regional relations.

As protests continued, Iran’s National Defense Council issued a warning that preemptive military action could be considered should concrete security threats emerge.

While the statement did not name specific countries, it criticized unnamed adversaries for hostile rhetoric, interference, and alleged violations of international law.

Past Prediction Market Controversies Resurface

The trader’s timing has also revived memories of earlier Polymarket controversies. For instance, in a recent case involving Venezuela, three wallets placed highly profitable bets ahead of major political developments.

Those wallets reportedly earned more than $630,000 by wagering on whether President Nicolás Maduro would leave office shortly before his arrest.

For now, the activity appears to reflect elevated geopolitical risk rather than confirmed foresight.